Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 20, 2025
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Brazil
Game Overview
Brasileirão Série A matchday 34 encounter between Grêmio (home) and Vasco da Gama (away). Both teams are competing in Brazil's top division with different trajectories this season. Grêmio enters as slight favorites in the home advantage scenario.
Key Factors to Consider
- Grêmio averages 2.0 goals when playing at home and concedes 0.8 goals per match at the Arena do Grêmio, indicating a strong defensive setup. Vasco da Gama, when playing away, averages 1.8 goals scored but concedes 1.6 goals per match, suggesting vulnerability on the road. This differential favors the home side significantly.
- Historical context between these clubs typically favors matches with moderate goal totals. Recent form suggests competitive encounters with neither team achieving consistent dominance over the other.
- No specific injury information available in current data. Both teams appear to have available squads for this fixture.
- Home advantage at Arena do Grêmio is a significant factor. The 20:30 local kickoff time (evening fixture) is standard for Brazilian football and neither team should be disadvantaged.
- Both clubs competing for league position in matchday 34 suggests motivation levels are high for securing points in the remainder of the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Grêmio -125 | Vasco +220 | Draw +225 | Grêmio Win | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | Grêmio -0.25 -105 | Vasco +25 -115 | Grêmio -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 +105 | Under 2.5 -125 | Under 2.5 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Grêmio 22% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Grêmio at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Grêmio to Win with Under 2.5 Total Goals. The combination of Grêmio's strong home defense (0.8 GA average) and Vasco's away struggles (1.6 GA average away) creates an environment where low-scoring outcomes are favored. The asymmetry in scoring patterns—Vasco averages only 1.8 goals away while Grêmio's home goal differential is +1.2—suggests a controlled match favoring the home side with limited offensive output.
Predicted Score: Grêmio 1-0 Vasco da Gama