Match Analysis: Palmeiras vs Vitoria – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 19, 2025
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Parque, São Paulo, Brazil
Game Overview
Palmeiras hosts Vitória in a Brasileirão Betano matchup featuring a clear disparity in form and quality. Palmeiras, currently 1st in the league with 68 points, faces 16th-place Vitória (35 points) in a home fixture. This is a significant gap in both standings position and recent performance, with Palmeiras dominating domestically while Vitória struggles on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras have been exceptional at home, winning 9 of their last 10 home matches (90% win rate) with just 1 draw and 0 losses. They average 3.2 goals per game at home while conceding only 0.5 per match. Vitória, conversely, have collapsed on the road, winning just 1 of their last 10 away matches (10% win rate) with 7 losses. Vitória average only 0.7 goals when traveling while conceding 2.4 per match. League standings show Palmeiras as clear favorites: 21 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses with +30 goal differential versus Vitória's 8 wins, 11 draws, 14 losses with -18 goal differential.
- Historically, Palmeiras dominate this fixture. In their last meeting on August 3, 2025, the match ended 2-2 as a recent draw. However, their all-time H2H record strongly favors Palmeiras: 12 wins compared to Vitória's 4 wins across 20 matches. Palmeiras have scored 35+ goals against Vitória across their meetings while Vitória have managed only 22-24. Recent form between the teams shows no draws in their last 10 encounters, indicating decisive outcomes.
- Information regarding specific injuries is not available in the provided data. Assume standard squad availability unless confirmed otherwise.
- The match is played at Palmeiras' home ground (Allianz Parque) in São Paulo, providing a significant home-field advantage. Vitória's poor away record suggests travel and psychological pressure may be contributing factors to their road struggles.
- Palmeiras are fighting for the league title in 1st place and will be highly motivated to maintain their position with a convincing home win. Vitória, languishing in 16th, face survival pressure but historically underperform on the road, making them unlikely to mount a serious challenge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Palmeiras -380 | Vitória +1000 | Draw +500 | Palmeiras Win | ★★★★☆ 82% |
| Spread | Palmeiras -1.5 (-104) | Vitória +1.5 (-116) | Palmeiras -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 76% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75 (-104) | Under 2.75 (-116) | Over 2.75 | ★★★★☆ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Palmeiras -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 33% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras are overwhelming favorites and should comfortably defeat Vitória at home. Expect a dominant performance from the hosts with multiple goals and a clean sheet or minimal concessions. Palmeiras' combination of elite home form (90% win rate), poor away form by Vitória (10% win rate), significant league gap, and historical H2H dominance creates a highly asymmetric matchup favoring the hosts.
Predicted Score: Palmeiras 3-0 Vitória