Match Analysis: Kentucky Wildcats vs Michigan St Spartans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden
Game Overview
Kentucky Wildcats host Michigan State Spartans in a high-profile State Farm Champions Classic matchup. Both teams enter with strong records, but Kentucky is favored by the market and playing with home-court advantage in New York.
Key Factors to Consider
- Kentucky is 3-1 with a dominant offensive performance in recent games, averaging high points and covering spreads in most outings. Michigan State is 3-0, but their schedule has been less challenging. Kentuckyβs last four games have gone over the total, and their home games trend higher scoring.
- No recent direct H2H data available, but both programs have a history of competitive matchups. Kentucky holds a slight edge in recent neutral-site meetings.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of latest updates.
- Game is played at a neutral site (Madison Square Garden), but Kentucky is considered the de facto home team. Crowd support and travel may slightly favor Kentucky.
- Both teams are highly motivated for a marquee early-season matchup with NCAA tournament implications and national ranking stakes.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -218, away: +180 | Kentucky Wildcats | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: -5.5 -110, away: 5.5 -110 | Kentucky Wildcats -5.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | over: 154.5 -110, under: 154.5 -110 | Under 154.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 154.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kentucky Wildcats win and cover the spread, but the game stays under the total due to Michigan Stateβs defensive discipline and Kentuckyβs recent defensive improvements.
Predicted Score: Kentucky 78, Michigan State 71