Match Analysis: Miami Heat vs New York Knicks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Kaseya Center
Game Overview
Miami Heat host the New York Knicks in a pivotal Eastern Conference matchup. Both teams are dealing with injuries and recent form swings, but Miami holds a strong home advantage and the Knicks are struggling on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Miami is 5-1 at home and 7-6 overall, covering the spread in 8 of 13 games. New York is 8-4 overall but 0-3 on the road, with a recent three-game losing streak away from home. Miami's home dominance and New York's road struggles are key.
- Recent H2H data is limited, but Miami has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against the Knicks. The total has gone over in 4 of Miami's last 5 home games.
- Knicks are missing key players Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby, severely impacting their offensive and defensive capabilities. Miami is relatively healthy, with no major injuries reported.
- The game is being played at Kaseya Center, where Miami has a strong home record. The public betting is split, but sharp money is leaning Miami. The total has moved up to 242.5, indicating market confidence in a high-scoring game.
- Miami is looking to solidify their playoff position and extend their home winning streak. New York is motivated to end their road skid but faces a tough challenge without their star players.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -125, away: 105 | Miami Heat | Not available |
| Spread | home: -1.5, away: 1.5 | Miami Heat -1.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 241.5, under: 241.5 | Over 241.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Heat 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 241.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 241.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Miami Heat will cover the spread and win the game, with the total going over 241.5 points.
Predicted Score: Miami Heat 119 – New York Knicks 109