Match Analysis: Pennsylvania Quakers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 17, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: The Palestra, Philadelphia, PA
Game Overview
Saint Joseph's Hawks (2-1) travel to face Pennsylvania Quakers (1-2) in a Big 5 Classic matchup at The Palestra. Saint Joseph's enters as the favorite after a disappointing loss to Virginia Tech, while Penn seeks to improve their defensive woes at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Saint Joseph's averages 73.3 PPG (268th in college) on 40.3% FG and 23.9% from three. Penn allows 87.3 PPG (328th in defense) and 45.5% FG, indicating serious defensive vulnerabilities. Saint Joseph's shot only 59 points against Virginia Tech's defense but faced a top-tier opponent. Penn has been outscored significantly in their last two games (losses to American 84-78 and Providence 106-81), suggesting offensive inconsistency despite shooting well from three (42.9% vs American, 43.3% vs Providence).
- No recent H2H data provided in search results. This is a conference rival matchup in the Big 5 Classic.
- Penn's Owen Verna is listed as questionable with a hip injury, though severity is unclear.
- Game played at The Palestra, Penn's home court, providing home-court advantage. This is an in-state rivalry with likely increased intensity and crowd support for Penn. Saint Joseph's must travel to a hostile environment after a 35-point blowout loss.
- Penn is 1-2 and desperately seeking a home win to improve record and regain confidence defensively. Saint Joseph's, despite being favored, faces motivation questions after the Virginia Tech loss but will want to prove themselves against a struggling opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Penn +215 / STJOE -265 | Saint Joseph's Hawks -265 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Penn +5.5 -110 / STJOE -5.5 -110 | Saint Joseph's -5.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 163.5 -115 / Under 163.5 -105 | Under 163.5 | β β β ββ 59% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saint Joseph's Hawks -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 163.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 163.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Saint Joseph's Hawks win 74-68 against a Penn team that cannot generate consistent offense despite strong three-point shooting. Saint Joseph's' superior defensive positioning and Saint Joseph's being favored by Vegas suggests the market respects their defensive structure more. However, Penn's home-court advantage and desperation will keep this closer than the spread suggests.
Predicted Score: Saint Joseph's Hawks 74, Pennsylvania Quakers 68