Match Analysis: Bowling Green Falcons vs Akron Zips – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Game Overview
Bowling Green Falcons host the Akron Zips in a Mid-American Conference matchup with both teams struggling this season. Akron holds a slight edge in recent offense and a better ATS record against Bowling Green. Both teams have losing records overall but Akron has been notably poor on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Akron is 4-7 overall with a 5-6 ATS record, showing slightly better offensive production (22.55 points/game) and defense (28.45 points allowed) than Bowling Green (3-7 overall, 18.5 points/game). Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS in last 6 games and has struggled to score consistently at home.
- Bowling Green leads recent head-to-head ATS with a 12-5 record against Akron. Akron is 2-18 SU on the road in last 20 games indicating travel vulnerability. Recent matches suggest low scoring tendencies, especially in Bowling Green home games.
- No significant injury reports impacting starting lineups or key positions for either team are present in available data.
- Weather at Doyt L. Perry Stadium expected to be clear and mild (~41Β°F) with no rain or wind concerns. No major external disruptions noted.
- Both teams have poor overall records and may be motivated to finish the season strong, but Akron's poor road form and Bowling Green's home crowd could be decisive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons: -200, Akron Zips: 168 | Bowling Green Falcons | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons -5.5: -110, Akron Zips +5.5: -110 | Bowling Green Falcons -5.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 47.5: -110, Under 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 47.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Bowling Green Falcons moneyline as home favorites with confidence in their ability to leverage home field advantage and historical dominance against Akron. Expect a relatively low scoring game under the 47.5 total.
Predicted Score: Bowling Green Falcons 24 – Akron Zips 17