Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Sport Recife - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 18, 2025
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: General Severiano Stadium, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Botafogo hosts Sport Recife in Matchday 34 of Brazil's Série A. Botafogo enters as heavy favorites with strong home form and clear ambitions for a Libertadores qualification, while Sport Recife arrives in poor form, seeking to escape relegation pressure with a road upset.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo shows solid form at home with 8 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses in home matches, and has recorded 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 games. Sport Recife is in crisis form with 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 consecutive losses in their last 5 matches. Sport also has only 1 away victory in the entire season and operates with the second-worst attack in the competition.
- No specific historical H2H data provided in available sources, but Botafogo's home advantage combined with Sport's away record suggests a significant home edge.
- No specific injury information available in provided sources. Assume both teams at full or near-full strength.
- Botafogo seeks Libertadores qualification, providing strong motivation. Sport faces relegation pressure, creating urgency but limited confidence. Match played at Botafogo's fortress where they maintain strong winning percentage.
- Botafogo: Direct Libertadores push with clear objectives. Sport Recife: Survival mode with minimal wins away from home creates psychological disadvantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo -410 | Draw +500 | Sport Recife +950 | Botafogo Win | ★★★★☆ 76% |
| Spread | Botafogo -1.75 (-110) | Sport Recife +1.75 (-110) | Botafogo -1.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 3.0 (-108) | Under 3.0 (-112) | Under 3.0 | ★★★★☆ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo -20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo dominates this matchup with high-confidence home victory. Sport Recife's catastrophic away record, worst-ranked attack, and 5-game losing streak make them unlikely to generate scoring opportunities against Botafogo's efficient defense. Expect a controlled Botafogo performance resulting in a clean sheet or minimal goals conceded.
Predicted Score: Botafogo 2-0 Sport Recife
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