Match Analysis: Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas
Game Overview
Portland Trail Blazers (6-6) travel to Dallas to face the struggling Mavericks (3-10) in a Western Conference matchup. The Mavericks are attempting to break a four-game home losing streak, while Portland enters as the stronger team despite being on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Portland is 6-6 overall with a 3-4 record on the road, averaging 120.6 PPG while allowing 120.8 PPG (essentially league average). Dallas has been one of the worst teams in the NBA at 3-10, particularly struggling at home (2-7) and ranking as the second-worst efficient offensive team in the league, averaging 109.2 PPG while allowing 115.8 PPG. Dallas is on a three-game losing streak.
- Recent matchups show Dallas has won 3 of the last 4 games against Portland, including a 117-111 victory on January 9, 2025. However, these games have been close spreads, suggesting competitive matchups. The historical advantage favors Dallas, but current form trajectories strongly favor Portland.
- This is where Dallas faces critical problems. Kyrie Irving and Dante Exum are out entirely. Anthony Davis is listed as doubtful, and PJ Washington is probable. For Portland, the team appears to have no major injury concerns reported. The absence of Irving significantly hampers Dallas's offensive firepower, while Dereck Lively's recent return helps defensively but cannot fully compensate for Irving's loss.
- Dallas is playing at home (typically an advantage), but their home record is dismal (2-7). Portland has been resilient on the road (3-4), and the Trail Blazers are ranked 6th in pace while Dallas runs a more methodical offense (15th in pace). Portland's scoring leader Deni Avdija has been exceptional this season (25.8 PPG on 48.8% FG). The Mavericks' desperate need to stop a home losing streak may provide some motivation, but their roster depletion makes this unlikely.
- Dallas desperately needs a win to stop the home losing streak and climb out of the Western Conference basement. However, motivation alone cannot overcome significant roster injuries and poor team efficiency. Portland, as the healthier and more efficient team, should be favored despite playing on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | DAL +136 | POR -162 | Portland Trail Blazers ML | ★★★★☆ 71% |
| Spread | DAL +3.5 (-110) | POR -3.5 (-110) | Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 233.5 (-112) | Under 233.5 (-108) | Over 233.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portland Trail Blazers -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 233.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 233.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Portland Trail Blazers to win outright and cover the spread. The combination of Dallas's injury crisis (Irving out, Davis doubtful), poor home form (2-7), league-worst offensive efficiency, and Portland's superior health and balanced play makes this a clear matchup advantage for the visitors. While Dallas's home court provides traditional value and Irving's absence makes the moneyline attractive for contrarians, the fundamental team strength disparity is too significant to ignore.
Predicted Score: Portland 119, Dallas 115
