Match Analysis: Long Beach St 49ers vs Illinois St Redbirds - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Walter Pyramid, Long Beach
Game Overview
Illinois State Redbirds (1-2) travel to Long Beach State 49ers (0-3) in a Week 2 matchup of the 2025-26 college basketball season. Illinois State enters as a significant road favorite, seeking to improve their record against a struggling Long Beach State team winless through three games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Illinois State, despite a 1-2 record, is the more complete team with superior defensive efficiency (allowing just 4.3 three-pointers per game, 13th nationally, on 22.8% shooting). Long Beach State is significantly hampered by poor shooting (24.6% from three, 331st nationally) and alarming turnover issues (23.6% turnover rate, 339th nationally). LBSU is on a 10-game straight-up losing streak with 0-3 start.
- Illinois State defeated Long Beach State 61-52 in their last meeting on November 20, 2023, when Illinois State was a 6.5-point underdog at a neutral site. Illinois State is now favored by 7.5 points as the road team, indicating improved relative strength.
- No injury information available in provided data.
- This is Long Beach State's home opener, which typically provides some motivational advantage. However, LBSU's poor shooting efficiency and turnover management suggest structural team issues that home court alone cannot overcome.
- Long Beach State will have the motivational boost of playing at home for the first time this season. Illinois State, as the road favorite, faces the challenge of maintaining focus without home court advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Illinois St -315 | Long Beach St +255 | Illinois State Redbirds | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Illinois St -7.5 -102 | Long Beach St +7.5 -120 | Illinois State -7.5 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | Over 143.5 -112 | Under 143.5 -108 | Under 143.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Illinois St Redbirds 184% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 143.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Illinois St Redbirds at 184% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 72.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Illinois State will win decisively. The statistical advantages in three-point defense, shooting efficiency, and turnover management strongly favor the Redbirds. Long Beach State's 0-3 start reflects fundamental offensive limitations that Illinois State's strong defensive profile is well-suited to exploit.
Predicted Score: Illinois State 75 - Long Beach State 63
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