Match Analysis: Indiana Hoosiers vs Incarnate Word Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Bloomington, IN (Indiana Hoosiers home court)
Game Overview
The Indiana Hoosiers, undefeated at 3-0 and heavily favored, face the Incarnate Word Cardinals, who are 2-1 with an underdog status. Indiana dominates in talent, recent form, and home court advantage, reflected by extremely skewed bookmaker odds.
Key Factors to Consider
- Indiana is 3-0 with dominant wins including a 47-point victory over Alabama A&M and a 23-point neutral court win against Marquette, demonstrating strong offense and defense. Incarnate Word is 2-1 with their sole loss by 34 points at Colorado St, indicating a much weaker team overall.
- Limited historical head-to-head data available as these teams rarely meet. Recent form strongly favors Indiana, with no direct matchup surprises indicated in available data.
- Incarnate Word has several injuries in key players including G Jason Drake (toe), F Josh Harris (foot), and G Aleksa Ristic (foot), reducing their competitiveness. Indiana has no major injury concerns reported.
- Indiana playing at home with strong fan support and familiar environment. No travel stress for Indiana; Incarnate Word traveling from Southland Conference, a lesser competitive conference, adding to the challenge.
- Indiana, with a perfect record and high program expectations, is motivated to maintain dominance and avoid early season upsets. Incarnate Word likely motivated but substantially outmatched.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers: -10000, Incarnate Word Cardinals: +3000 | Indiana Hoosiers | β β β β β 98% |
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers: -25.5 -118, Incarnate Word Cardinals: +25.5 -104 | Indiana Hoosiers -25.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over 154.5: -110, Under 154.5: -110 | Under 154.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 154.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Indiana Hoosiers win straight up, cover the large spread, and the game total expected to go under given Indianaβs strong defense and lack of Incarnate Word offensive firepower.
Predicted Score: Indiana Hoosiers 83 – Incarnate Word Cardinals 65