Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vancouver Canucks - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 10:10 PM UTC
- Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Vancouver Canucks in an NHL matchup where the Lightning are favorites. Tampa Bay is slightly struggling recently but maintains home advantage, while Vancouver comes in with a multi-game losing streak and defensive issues.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tampa Bay holds a 9-6-2 record with recent form showing 2 wins in last 3 games; Vancouver sits at 8-9-2 with 3 consecutive losses. Tampa Bay allows an average of 3.0 goals against, whereas Vancouver concedes 3.5, ranking near the bottom defensively.
- Tampa Bay has generally been stronger historically against Vancouver, with multiple recent wins including a favored status in this game.
- No critical injuries reported for Tampa Bay; backup goalie Jonas Johansson has performed solidly (3-1-0, 2.83 GAA). Vancouver's goalie Kevin Lankinen has a weaker 3.58 GAA and penalty kill ranked last in the NHL at 66.7%.
- Home advantage strongly favors Tampa Bay, with local crowd support and travel fatigue for Vancouver. Betting public heavily backs Tampa Bay, representing 88% of money and 12% for Vancouver.
- Tampa Bay seeks to halt recent inconsistency and leverage home ice to climb standings. Vancouver needs to end their losing streak but defensive struggles and poor special teams limit their chances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -175, away: +145 | Tampa Bay Lightning | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | home: +142 (Lightning -1.5), away: -170 (Canucks +1.5) | Vancouver Canucks +1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | over: -105, under: -115 | Over 6.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 6.5 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 6.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Lightning to win straight up with the game total going over 6.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 4-2 Tampa Bay Lightning
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