Match Analysis: Ohio State Buckeyes vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Value City Arena, Columbus, OH
Game Overview
Ohio State (3-0) hosts Notre Dame (3-0) in a non-conference matchup featuring two undefeated teams. The Buckeyes are heavily favored as the home team, with the oddsmakers projecting a competitive but Ohio State-favored contest. Both teams enter with strong starts, but Ohio State's home arena dominance and recent head-to-head success give them a clear edge.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are 3-0 to start the season. Ohio State has outscored opponents 287-223 (avg +21.3 per game), while Notre Dame has outscored opponents 269-195 (avg +24.7 per game). However, Ohio State's scoring advantage reflects stronger competition. Ohio State has won 42 of its last 45 non-conference home games at Value City Arena. Notre Dame has won 6 of its last 7 games overall but has lost 8 of its last 10 games against Big Ten opponents. Critically, Notre Dame has lost the first half in each of its last 3 day games against the Big Ten.
- Ohio State owns a 9-4 all-time series advantage and has won the last 3 consecutive matchups, including a 90-85 road victory on December 8, 2020. The Buckeyes' dominance in this series is substantial, and home court historically favors Ohio State heavily.
- No significant injuries reported in available data.
- The game is played during a day slot (12:30 PM EST), which historically favors Ohio State. Seven of Ohio State's last 8 non-conference home games produced 162+ total points, suggesting elevated scoring potential. Conversely, 6 of Notre Dame's last 7 day games against non-AP-ranked opponents produced 148 or fewer total points.
- Both teams are undefeated and seeking a quality non-conference win early in the season. Ohio State has strong home court advantage and motivation to protect their arena dominance. Notre Dame is seeking an upset statement win but faces significant historical headwinds.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Notre Dame +310 / Ohio State -400 | Ohio State Buckeyes | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Notre Dame +8.5 (-112) / Ohio State -8.5 (-108) | Ohio State -8.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 152.5 (-110) / Under 152.5 (-110) | Over 152.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 152.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 152.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ohio State Buckeyes win 83-79. The Buckeyes' home court dominance (42-3 in non-conference home games), recent head-to-head success (3-0 in last meetings), and day-game track record support a comfortable but not dominant home victory. The game stays competitive due to Notre Dame's strong start and undefeated record, but Ohio State's structural advantages are too significant to overcome.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 83, Notre Dame 79