Match Analysis: Dartmouth Big Green vs Appalachian St Mountaineers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Hanover, New Hampshire (Dartmouth Home)
Game Overview
Appalachian State (2-2, 0-2 away) travels to face Dartmouth (0-2, 0-1 home) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. App State enters as a slight favorite despite their 0-2 road record, while Dartmouth searches for their first win of the season at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Appalachian State shows a 2-2 overall record with strong home performance (2-0) but struggles significantly on the road (0-2). They've scored 287 points and allowed 257 across four games. Dartmouth remains winless at 0-2 overall with a minus-26 point differential, averaging just 65.5 PPG while conceding 78.5 PPG. App State's K. Jennings leads with 17.0 PPG on 42.6% FG, while Dartmouth's K. Thomas contributes 16.0 PPG on 38.1% FG.
- No prior matchup history available between these programs in recent seasons.
- Appalachian State's guard KJ Vasser underwent foot surgery on November 7 and will miss the entire 2025-26 season, representing a significant loss to their backcourt depth.
- This is an out-of-conference matchup with neutral motivation considerations. App State's road woes (0-2) present concern despite their overall record advantage. Dartmouth plays at home where they have a slight edge, though they haven't won there yet.
- Dartmouth is desperate for their first win of the season and will have home court advantage. Appalachian State aims to break their road skid and capitalize on their overall record superiority. App State's injury to Vasser may limit their depth in closing situations.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Appalachian St -122 / Dartmouth +102 | Appalachian St Mountaineers | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Appalachian St -1.5 -104 / Dartmouth +1.5 -118 | Appalachian St -1.5 | β β β ββ 61% |
| Over/under | Over 141.5 -110 / Under 141.5 -110 | Under 141.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Appalachian St Mountaineers 20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 141.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Appalachian St Mountaineers at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Appalachian State wins this matchup but the margin is tighter than the spread suggests. While App State has the superior overall record and roster talent, their 0-2 road record combined with Dartmouth's home court provides significant value. The total trends toward the under given both teams' defensive capabilities and limited offensive explosiveness.
Predicted Score: Appalachian State 72, Dartmouth 69