Match Analysis: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Jackson St Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Thomas Assembly Center, Ruston, LA
Game Overview
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-1) host Jackson State Tigers (0-2) in a non-conference matchup. Louisiana Tech enters as 8.5-point home favorites with a total set at 146.5. This represents a significant talent and experience disparity, with the Bulldogs controlling home court advantage and recent success against similar opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- Louisiana Tech averages 71.5 PPG on 47.8% shooting while allowing 56 PPG on 34.8% shooting defense. Jackson State has struggled significantly, losing its first two games of the season. Louisiana Tech has won 29 of its last 31 non-conference home games at Thomas Assembly Center, establishing dominant home court performance. Jackson State has lost 16 consecutive road games against non-conference opponents, a critical weakness.
- No recent head-to-head history available between these programs. Historical context shows Louisiana Tech's overwhelming home record (29-2 in last 31 non-conference home games) versus Jackson State's road struggles (0-16 in recent non-conference road contests).
- Jackson State guard Keiveon Hunt is listed as out with a knee injury, further weakening an already depleted roster.
- Home court advantage heavily favors Louisiana Tech. Jackson State is on the road in an unfavorable situation. Louisiana Tech has shown particular vulnerability in night games against non-AP-ranked opponents (0-4 recently), presenting a potential angle for value. First-half trends show Louisiana Tech has struggled in opening halves of night games (1-7 in recent night matchups).
- Louisiana Tech seeks to build on home court dominance and improve to 2-1 after a loss to Nevada. Jackson State faces pressure to secure its first win of the season while operating at significant disadvantage on the road without key personnel.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech -430 | Jackson State +330 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Louisiana Tech -8.5 -105 | Jackson State +8.5 -115 | Louisiana Tech -8.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5 -106 | Under 146.5 -114 | Under 146.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs to win decisively at home with controlled scoring pace. The Bulldogs' home court mastery, superior defensive efficiency, and Jackson State's road struggles create a strong case for Louisiana Tech to cover the spread comfortably. The total should stay under due to Louisiana Tech's defensive prowess and tendency to hold opponents to low scores.
Predicted Score: Louisiana Tech 76, Jackson State 66