Match Analysis: Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Game Overview
Week 11 AFC South divisional matchup between the Tennessee Titans (home) and Houston Texans (away). The Texans are favored by 7.5 points and heavily favored on the moneyline at -278, reflecting their recent dominance in the series and likely superior record. The Texans are attempting to sweep the season series after winning in Week 4.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Texans have dominated recent matchups, winning 4 of their last 5 games against Tennessee. Houston is currently favored by sportsbooks, indicating a stronger overall record and performance this season. The Titans, playing at home, have won the all-time series 24-23 but are underperforming relative to Houston in 2025.
- Texans lead recent form 4-1 over the past five meetings. The series was split last season. Historically, the Titans won the first two matchups (17-10 in 2002 and 13-3 in 2002), but Houston has reversed this trend significantly in recent years.
- Injury information is not available in the provided data. This represents a significant unknown factor that could shift probabilities materially.
- Divisional rivalry games often feature tighter margins than suggested by regular season records. Home field advantage at Nissan Stadium provides the Titans with meaningful support. The point spread has moved from -6 in Week 4 to -7.5 in Week 11, suggesting the Texans' confidence has increased or the Titans' performance has declined further.
- Houston is seeking to sweep the season series and maintain playoff positioning. Tennessee, as the home team, carries motivation to protect home turf against a division rival and break their recent losing streak in the matchup.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston: -278 | Tennessee: +225 | Houston Texans ML | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Houston: -6 (-108) | Tennessee: +6 (-112) | Tennessee Titans +6.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 37.5 (-102) | Under: 37.5 (-118) | Under 37.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Texans -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 37.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 37.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Houston Texans win 24-17. The Texans' strong recent form, superior moneyline odds, and offensive capability overcome Tennessee's home-field advantage. However, the Titans keep this game closer than the -7.5 spread suggests due to divisional context and home support.
Predicted Score: Houston Texans 24, Tennessee Titans 17