Match Analysis: New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: MetLife Stadium
Game Overview
Week 11 NFL matchup between the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers at MetLife Stadium. The Packers enter as heavy favorites, with strong offensive momentum and a healthier roster compared to the Giants, who have struggled with injuries and inconsistency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Green Bay has won 4 of their last 5, led by a balanced offense and improving defense. The Giants have lost 3 of their last 4, with offensive inefficiency and defensive lapses.
- Packers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including a 27-22 victory in their last matchup in 2022. Green Bay has dominated recent H2H, especially in regular season games.
- Giants missing key starters: WR Malik Nabers (questionable), LB Micah McFadden (out), and CB Aaron Robinson (out). Packers have only minor depth concerns, with no major starters listed out.
- Game played in New Jersey, with potential for cold, windy conditions. Packers have shown better cold-weather adaptability this season.
- Packers are fighting for a playoff spot, while Giants are trending toward a rebuild. Green Bay has higher playoff urgency and roster continuity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 320, away: -410 | Green Bay Packers | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: 7 -108, away: -7 -112 | Green Bay Packers -7 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 42.5 -115, under: 42.5 -105 | Under 42.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 42.5 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 42.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Green Bay Packers to win outright and cover the -7 spread, with the game finishing under the total due to defensive adjustments and weather.
Predicted Score: Green Bay Packers 24, New York Giants 17