Match Analysis: Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, Spain
Game Overview
The Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders meet in the first regular-season NFL game in Spain, both teams holding identical 3-7 records. Miami enters the game after a morale-boosting 30-13 win over Buffalo, while Washington is struggling with a five-game losing streak and a mid-season defensive coordinator change.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams have underwhelming overall performance this season (Miami 3-7, Washington 3-7). Miami showed recent improvement with their blowout win over Buffalo, while Washington has allowed an average of 28 points and 6.5 yards per play, highlighting defensive weaknesses on both sides.
- No recent direct matchups available this season. Historical context is limited given the venues and schedules. However, both teams have been competitive but inconsistent, with Miami slightly favored due to recent momentum.
- There are no major injury reports impacting key starters for either team, although Washington's defensive struggles hint at personnel and scheme issues rather than absences.
- The neutral-site game in Madrid could slightly reduce home-field advantage for Miami. Weather is controlled indoors at Santiago Bernabéu, neutralizing climate effects. The historic nature of the match could motivate both teams.
- Miami appears more motivated after snapping a losing streak notably against a strong Buffalo Bills team. Washington is under pressure to stop their losing streak and adapt to coaching changes, but morale is likely lower.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins: -155, Washington Commanders: +130 | Miami Dolphins | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Miami Dolphins: -2.5 -115, Washington Commanders: +2.5 -105 | Miami Dolphins -2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 47.5 -112, Under: 47.5 -108 | Over 47.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 47.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 47.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite the neutral venue, Miami's recent improved performance and slightly better defensive profile give them the edge to win straight up and cover the spread. Given both defenses' weakness, the total over is favored.
Predicted Score: Miami Dolphins 27 – Washington Commanders 20