Match Analysis: TCU Horned Frogs vs Michigan Wolverines – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX
Game Overview
Michigan Wolverines (2-0) travel to face TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) in an early-season matchup. Michigan enters as a significant favorite with an 8.5-point spread and -465 moneyline odds. This game features a clash of styles, with TCU operating at a deliberate pace (163rd in Adjusted Tempo per KenPom) versus Michigan's more uptempo approach.
Key Factors to Consider
- Michigan has started 2-0 and recently required overtime to defeat Wake Forest at home, suggesting potential vulnerabilities despite their talent advantage. TCU is 2-1 and has shown inconsistency, going 1-2 against the spread in their last five games. TCU's offensive efficiency is hampered by their deliberate pace, which could limit scoring opportunities.
- No recent head-to-head history is available in the provided data. However, historical trends show Michigan won 73.1% of moneyline favorite games last season (19 of 26), and specifically won 90% when favored at -450 or shorter odds. TCU won only 25% of underdog situations and was 1-4 last season as +340 or greater underdogs.
- No specific injury information is provided in the search results. Morez Johnson (Illinois transfer) leads Michigan with 17 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, while Yaxel Lendeborg (preseason All-American) averages 10.5 points and 4.5 rebounds at 47.1% shooting.
- The game occurs at 2:00 AM UTC (9:00 PM local time Friday), which is an unusual tip-off time but manageable. TCU's home court advantage at Schollmaier Arena provides some benefit, as the Horned Frogs performed better at home last season (9-8 ATS) compared to away (3-8 ATS). Michigan had a worse home ATS record (5-10) versus road (5-5) last season.
- Michigan, as the undefeated team, seeks to maintain their perfect record against a capable mid-major program. TCU aims to prove competitiveness and improve their early-season record. The spread has moved from -6.5 to -8.5 since opening, indicating sharp money backing Michigan.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan -465 | TCU +350 | Michigan Wolverines | β β β β β 76% |
| Spread | Michigan -8.5 -114 | TCU +8.5 -106 | TCU Horned Frogs +8.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 157.5 -110 | Under 157.5 -110 | Under 157.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 157.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 157.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Michigan Wolverines to win by 6-8 points in a controlled defensive affair. Michigan's superior talent and historic moneyline win rate as a favorite should prevail, though TCU's deliberate pace and home-court advantage will keep the game closer than the current spread suggests.
Predicted Score: Michigan 71, TCU 65