Match Analysis: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Samford Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Bud Walton Arena
Game Overview
The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1), ranked #21 nationally, host the Samford Bulldogs (2-1) at Bud Walton Arena in a matchup showcasing a clear talent and performance gap, with Arkansas boasting strong offensive efficiency and dominance in rebounds and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arkansas averages 89.3 points per game on 46.9% shooting while holding opponents to 67.3 points per game, showing defensive strength. Samford scores less efficiently and is more turnover-prone. Arkansas recently won a blowout 93-56; Samford won a close overtime game 93-90 but faces challenges handling strong teams.
- Limited recent H2H data available; however, Arkansas's superior program status and home court advantage strongly favor them.
- No significant injuries reported for either side impacting starters or key rotation players.
- Arkansas plays at home with crowd support at Bud Walton Arena, providing a motivational and environmental advantage. Samford must travel and adjust to a high-pressure SEC environment.
- Arkansas aims to reinforce its top-25 ranking and establish dominance early in the season, motivating a strong performance. Samford is motivated to prove competitiveness but faces a talent gap.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -10000, away: +3000 | Arkansas Razorbacks | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | home: -118, away: -104 | Arkansas Razorbacks -25.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | over: -106, under: -114 | Under 161.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arkansas Razorbacks to win straight up and cover the spread; total points to go under 161.5
Predicted Score: Arkansas Razorbacks 98 – Samford Bulldogs 62