Match Analysis: USC Trojans vs Illinois St Redbirds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 14, 2025
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Intuit Dome, Los Angeles
Game Overview
USC enters as a dominant -2300 moneyline favorite against Illinois State in a neutral-site matchup. The Trojans are undefeated (2-0) with elite offensive efficiency (104.0 PPG on 48.6% shooting), while Illinois State is 1-1 and struggling defensively (68.5 PPG allowed). This represents a significant talent and execution gap in the early season.
Key Factors to Consider
- USC is averaging 104.0 PPG on 48.6% shooting while holding opponents to 73.5 PPG. Chad Baker-Mazara and Ezra Ausar both average 19.0 PPG and have provided consistent two-way play. Illinois State scores 72.0 PPG on 45.3% shooting and allows 68.5 PPG. Their backcourt (Ty'Reek Coleman at 13.5 PPG, Johnny Kinziger at 13.0 PPG) has provided early season stability, but defensive vulnerabilities persist, particularly when their own scoring stalls.
- No prior head-to-head history available between these programs for this season.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- This is a neutral-site game at Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, which favors neither team's home court but benefits USC given their local presence and familiarity with the venue. The Trojans are 2-0 ATS; Illinois State is 0-1 ATS away from home.
- USC is building momentum with dominant early-season wins and enters as overwhelming favorites seeking to extend their perfect record. Illinois State is seeking to bounce back from an away loss and prove competitive, but faces an uphill battle against a superior opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Illinois St +1060 | USC -2300 | USC Trojans | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Illinois St +16.5 -114 | USC -16.5 -106 | USC -16.5 | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | Over 158.5 -110 | Under 158.5 -110 | Over 158.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | USC Trojans 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 158.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 158.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
USC will dominate this matchup both on the scoreboard and against the spread. The Trojans' depth, pace, and interior dominance will overwhelm Illinois State's limited defensive capabilities. Expect USC to control pace, score efficiently, and cruise to a comfortable double-digit victory.
Predicted Score: USC 97, Illinois State 71