Match Analysis: San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 3:30 AM UTC
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium
Game Overview
San Diego State Aztecs (7-2) host Boise State Broncos (6-3) in a pivotal Mountain West matchup. Both teams show solid records, with San Diego State favored slightly at home. Offensive capabilities are balanced with Boise State featuring a strong rushing attack and San Diego State a stout defense. The matchup is expected to be competitive but leans to a defensive, moderately low-scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State is 3-2 in recent games and has covered the spread in four straight home games, showing consistency. Boise State is 3-1 in their last four, with strong rushing but struggles against favorites and on the road recently.
- The favorite has won 28 of Boise State's last 30 games historically. San Diego State has had the edge in covering spreads at home against Boise State lately.
- No major injuries reported for starting key players on either side, maintaining team integrity for both squads.
- Game played at Snapdragon Stadium favors the home Aztecs. Weather conditions likely neutralβno significant impact expected.
- San Diego State aims to solidify its Mountain West standing and maintain a strong home record. Boise State is highly motivated to remain tied for first in the conference but suffers underdog disadvantages here.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State -142, Boise State +120 | San Diego State | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | San Diego State -2.5 -122, Boise State +2.5 +100 | San Diego State -2.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 41.5 -104, Under 41.5 -118 | Under 41.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 41.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 41.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego State Aztecs to win outright, cover the -2.5 spread, and the total going under 41.5 points.
Predicted Score: San Diego State Aztecs 24, Boise State Broncos 17