Match Analysis: BYU Cougars vs TCU Horned Frogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 3:15 AM UTC
- Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium
Game Overview
Top-15 Big 12 matchup with ranked BYU Cougars (8-1) hosting a solid TCU Horned Frogs (6-3). BYU is slightly favored at home with a 4.5-point spread. Both teams demonstrate solid offensive production and competitive defenses.
Key Factors to Consider
- BYU boasts an 8-1 record, showing strong home form (3-1 ATS) and a potent offense averaging over 50 points total in recent games. TCU is 6-3 but with a middling 4-4-1 ATS record, indicating occasional inconsistency.
- Recent H2H shows BYU holding a slight advantage and success against the spread this season (6-3 ATS), while TCU is more balanced but less reliable ATS.
- No major injury concerns reported for either team impacting starting positions significantly.
- BYU plays at home in Provo, Utah, enjoying a strong home-field advantage including altitude effects. The game time in late evening supports BYUβs rhythm.
- BYU is motivated to maintain top-15 ranking and stakes in conference positioning. TCU aims to improve bowl prospects but has less immediate urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -185, away: +154 | BYU Cougars | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | BYU: -110, TCU: -110 | BYU Cougars -4.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Over 51.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 51.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
BYU Cougars to win straight up; cover the 4.5-point spread; total points to go over 51.5
Predicted Score: BYU 33, TCU 20