Match Analysis: UNLV Rebels vs Utah State Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, Nevada
Game Overview
UNLV Rebels (7-2 overall, 2-1 MWC) host Utah State Aggies (5-4 overall, 2-2 MWC) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. UNLV enters as a 6-7 point favorite with strong recent form, while Utah State seeks an upset as significant underdogs.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNLV has won 5 straight games and maintains an impressive 5-0 record in their last 5 contests. At home, UNLV averages 62.5 points with an implied total of 36.5 points. Their 3-2 ATS record in recent games shows some vulnerability to public backing. Utah State (5-4) has a 2-2 conference record and enters as a clear underdog with a +6 spread.
- No specific historical H2H data provided in available sources. This appears to be a conference matchup between two MWC opponents with no notable historical precedent mentioned.
- No injury report information is available in the provided data. This represents incomplete analysis for a complete EV assessment.
- The game is played at neutral-friendly Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. UNLV's home field advantage is moderate. Public betting shows 61% of money backing UNLV with 39% backing Utah State, indicating moderate public consensus.
- UNLV is on a 5-game winning streak and has clear bowl eligibility momentum at 7-2. Utah State at 5-4 faces pressure to maintain relevance in conference standings. UNLV's ATS record of 5-4 suggests they may be slightly overvalued by markets, while being the heavy favorite creates backdoor cover risk.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV -220, Utah State +184 | UNLV Rebels | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | UNLV -6.5 -105, Utah State +6.5 -115 | UNLV -6.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 71.5 -105, Under 71.5 -115 | Under 71.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 71.5 23% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 71.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UNLV defeats Utah State 31-24 (UNLV -6.5 cover, Under 71.5)
Predicted Score: UNLV 31, Utah State 24