Match Analysis: Santos vs Palmeiras – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Vila Belmiro (Santos home ground)
Game Overview
Santos vs Palmeiras matchup in Campeonato Brasileiro Série A. Palmeiras arrive as heavy favorites, sitting atop the league with 68 points from 31 matches. Santos languish in 16th place with just 33 points from 30 matches and face potential relegation. Palmeiras dominated the recent head-to-head encounter 2-0 on November 6, 2025, with Vitor Roque scoring twice.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras are in excellent form with 21 wins, 5 draws, and only 5 losses this season (+31 goal differential). Recent form shows W-W-D-L-L. Santos have won only 8 of 30 matches with a concerning W-D-D-L-L recent form. Palmeiras have won 2 consecutive matches; Santos have not won in their last 3 games.
- Historical record across 343 matches: Palmeiras 148 wins, Santos 107 wins, 88 draws. Palmeiras are on a 2-match winning streak against Santos and won their most recent encounter 2-0.
- No specific injury information provided in available data.
- Palmeiras are fighting to maintain their league-leading position. Santos face existential pressure with relegation looming. Match is played away from Palmeiras' home advantage (Allianz Parque), but at neutral or Santos' ground.
- Palmeiras: Must win to maintain top position. Santos: Desperate for points to avoid relegation; critical motivation but limited quality to convert it into results.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Palmeiras -122, Santos +215, Draw +235 | Palmeiras Win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Palmeiras -0.25 -108, Santos +25 -112 | Palmeiras -0.25 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 +102, Under 2.5 -122 | Over 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Palmeiras 38% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Palmeiras at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras to win convincingly. Their superior form, recent dominance in the fixture, and Santos' poor form create a significant performance gap. Expect Palmeiras to control the match and score multiple goals against a leaky defense.
Predicted Score: Palmeiras 2-0 Santos