Match Analysis: Baylor Bears vs Utah Utes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
Game Overview
The Utah Utes (7-2) visit the Baylor Bears (5-4) in a significant Big 12 matchup with Utah favored both on the moneyline and spread. The total points line is set high at 60.5, reflecting strong offensive and defensive matchups, particularly Baylor's potent passing offense against Utah's top-ranked passing defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah holds a superior 7-2 record, including 6-0 when favored by 7.5 or more points. Baylor is 5-4 overall but only 2-7 against the spread. Utahβs defense is strong, ranked 6th against the pass, while Baylor boasts the 5th-ranked passing offense nationally.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Utahβs consistent superiority as favorites and Baylorβs struggles against the spread suggest Utah has a competitive edge in this matchup.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting starting personnel or impacting key positions based on available sources.
- The game takes place at Baylor's home stadium with fair weather conditions (76Β°F, no rain, light wind). Public betting trends favor Baylor with 62% of bets placed on them, but Utah holds stronger money percentages indicating sharp money.
- Utah is motivated to maintain its strong conference standing and undefeated record as a sizeable favorite. Baylor, with a middling season, is motivated to upset but has struggled historically covering spread as underdog.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah -295, Baylor +240 | Utah | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | Utah -7.5 -110, Baylor +7.5 -110 | Utah -7.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 60.5 -108, Under 60.5 -112 | Under 60.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Utes -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 60.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 60.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah Utes to win straight up on the moneyline, covering the 7.5-point spread, and the total score to go under 60.5 points.
Predicted Score: Utah 28 – Baylor 17