Match Analysis: Baysangur Susurkaev vs Eric McConico – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY
Game Overview
Undefeated rising prospect Baisangur Susurkaev (10-0) faces veteran Eric McConico (10-3-1) in a middleweight bout. Susurkaev is heavily favored, known for his high striking volume and strong wrestling-based grappling, coming off a submission win in UFC 319. McConico is a southpaw with solid cardio and seven stoppage wins but slower striking pace and less accuracy.
Key Factors to Consider
- Susurkaev maintains an unblemished 10-0 record with 9 finishes and significantly higher striking volume (4.56/min) and accuracy (58%) compared to McConicoβs 1.51/min and 36%. Susurkaev averages nearly 3 takedowns per 3 rounds with 85% takedown defense, dominating the wrestling facet.
- No previous matchup exists between Susurkaev and McConico.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
- Fight held at Madison Square Garden, a neutral venue with no known environmental advantage. Susurkaev benefits from a full training camp; McConico is experienced but older at 35.
- Susurkaev, at 24 and undefeated, is highly motivated to make a statement in his second UFC fight. McConico, after a recent split decision win, looks to establish himself further but faces a younger, hungrier opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -1050, away: 675 | Baisangur Susurkaev | β β β β β 88% |
| Spread | home: -575 (Baysangur -7.5), away: 350 (McConico +7.5) | Baisangur Susurkaev -7.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | over: 195 (1.5 rounds), under: -260 (1.5 rounds) | Under 1.5 rounds | β β β β β 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baysangur Susurkaev 590% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Baysangur Susurkaev at 590% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 87.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Baisangur Susurkaev to win decisively, likely by submission or stoppage within early rounds reflecting superior striking and wrestling.
Predicted Score: Susurkaev wins by submission or TKO in Round 1