Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs Colorado State Rams – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: University Stadium (NM), Albuquerque, New Mexico
Game Overview
New Mexico Lobos (6-3, 3-2 MW) host Colorado State Rams (2-7, 1-4 MW) in a Mountain West matchup. The Lobos are strong favorites at home, while the Rams are struggling offensively and defensively, especially on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico has won 6 of 9, including 5 straight at home, and has scored at least 33 in their last two games. Colorado State has lost 3 in a row, scoring only 29 total points in those losses, and has failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 games as underdogs.
- The favorite has covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings. New Mexico has won the first half in 3 of their last 4 home games against conference opponents.
- No major injuries reported for either team.
- Game is at altitude in Albuquerque, which favors New Mexico’s home advantage. Weather is expected to be clear.
- New Mexico is playing for a strong conference finish and bowl eligibility. Colorado State is out of contention and has lost 9 of their last 10 November games as underdogs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -700, away: 500 | New Mexico Lobos | Not available |
| Spread | home: -14.5, away: 14.5 | New Mexico Lobos -14.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 53.5, under: 53.5 | Under 53.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 53.5 30% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 53.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Mexico wins comfortably and covers the spread. The game stays under the total due to Colorado State’s offensive struggles and New Mexico’s defensive consistency.
Predicted Score: 34-17
