Match Analysis: UAB Blazers vs North Texas Mean Green – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Game Overview
North Texas, a strong 8-1 team, is heavily favored with a dominant offense (44.4 points per game) and superior defense compared to UAB’s underwhelming 3-6 record and weaker defense, positioning them as the clear favorite.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas boasts a top-3 ranking in offensive points per game and a solid defense ranking 61st. They are 7-2 against the spread this season. UAB has struggled defensively, allowing 37.1 points per game (ranked 129th), and has only covered three times in nine games.
- Recent matchups heavily favor North Texas, with strong performances and multiple covers as a significant favorite, indicating a historical advantage.
- No major injuries reported for either team impacting key players for this matchup.
- The game is played at UAB’s home stadium, Protective Stadium, but North Texas has historically performed well on the road, including in Alabama. Weather and other external factors do not appear significant.
- North Texas is motivated to maintain dominance and secure postseason positioning, while UAB, with a losing record, has less at stake though they have home advantage and a recent trend of covering the spread at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +810, away: -1400 | North Texas | ★★★★★ 90% |
| Spread | home: -105, away: -115 | North Texas -18.5 | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | over: -105, under: -115 | Under 70.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 70.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 70.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Texas Moneyline, North Texas Cover -18.5, Under 70.5 total points
Predicted Score: North Texas 43, UAB 22