Match Analysis: Arizona State Sun Devils vs West Virginia Mountaineers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
Game Overview
Big 12 matchup featuring Arizona State (6-3, 4-2 Big 12) hosting West Virginia (4-6, 2-5 Big 12). Arizona State is favored as the home team with superior record and conference standing. West Virginia enters on a two-game winning streak but remains a significant underdog. This game will heavily feature running game dynamics and quarterback mobility.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arizona State is 4-1 in their last 5 games with 2-2 ATS record in that span. They average 24.7 points per game and allow 23.7 points against. West Virginia has won 2 straight games including a 29-22 victory over Colorado, with freshman QB Scotty Fox Jr. performing well (2-1 as starter). West Virginia covers spreads at a 4-5 rate against conference opponents recently and has covered in 4 of last 5 conference games.
- No direct head-to-head history provided in available data. However, Arizona State's recent record shows they struggle to cover as favorites against non-AP-ranked teams (failed to cover in 3 of last 4 such games).
- Arizona State will be without receiver Jordyn Tyson due to injury, forcing reliance on QB Jeff Sims' mobility. This limits Arizona State's passing game efficiency.
- West Virginia has shown proficiency in the running game (57% run rate, 4.5 yards per carry – 27th in FBS) under Head Coach Rich Rodriguez. Arizona State has struggled defensively against dual-threat QBs and designed QB runs, giving up 38 points to BYU and 48 to Utah earlier in the season.
- Arizona State is tied for fifth in Big 12 standings and seeking to improve conference positioning. West Virginia is near the bottom of conference standings and fighting for bowl eligibility, providing desperation motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | ASU -460 | WVU +360 | Arizona State Sun Devils | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | ASU -11.5 -105 | WVU +11.5 -115 | Arizona State -11.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 48.5 -105 | Under 48.5 -115 | Under 48.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona State Sun Devils -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 48.5 1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arizona State will cover the spread, but this is a closer contest than the 11.5-point line suggests. West Virginia's improved run game and Fox's mobility will keep them competitive, but Arizona State's superior talent and home field advantage prevail.
Predicted Score: Arizona State 27, West Virginia 17