Match Analysis: LSU Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 5:45 PM UTC
- Location: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, LA)
Game Overview
LSU hosts Arkansas in a late-season SEC West matchup with both teams struggling. LSU is favored at home, but Arkansas has shown offensive strength despite a poor record. The game features two teams trending downward, with recent coaching changes and inconsistent performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- LSU ranks 104th in offensive points per game (23.7) and 19th in defensive points allowed (19.0). Arkansas ranks 25th in offensive points per game (35.4) but 119th in defensive points allowed (33.3). LSU has covered the spread in only 3 of 9 games, while Arkansas has also gone 3-6 ATS. LSUβs offense is stagnant, ranking 125th in rushing and 134th in points per quality drive. Arkansas ranks top-15 in both passing and rushing success rate and 7th in red zone offense.
- LSU has historically dominated Arkansas, but recent trends show Arkansas covering in several matchups. The Razorbacks have shown the ability to keep games close despite LSUβs home-field advantage.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is being played at Tiger Stadium, giving LSU a home-field edge. The spread has moved from LSU -6.5 to -5.5, indicating sharp money on Arkansas. The total has risen from 55.5 to 56.5, suggesting market expectation of a higher-scoring game.
- Both teams are coming off mid-season coaching changes and are looking to end losing streaks. LSU is 1-4 in their last 5, while Arkansas has lost 7 straight. Both teams are desperate for a win, but LSUβs motivation may be slightly higher at home.
- LSU wins a close game, but Arkansas covers the spread due to LSUβs offensive struggles and Arkansasβs strong offensive metrics.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -215, away: 180 | LSU Tigers | Not available |
| Spread | home: -5.5, away: 5.5 | Arkansas Razorbacks +5.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 56.5, under: 56.5 | Over 56.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | LSU Tigers -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 56.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 56.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
No prediction available.
Predicted Score: LSU 30, Arkansas 27