Match Analysis: UConn Huskies vs Air Force Falcons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field, East Hartford, Connecticut
Game Overview
The UConn Huskies (7-3) host the Air Force Falcons (3-6) in a matchup featuring a strong passing offense (UConn) against a run-heavy, lower-ranked defensive unit (Air Force). UConn enters as a solid favorite with a potent aerial attack and recent strong form, while Air Force looks to upset at home with a resilient defense in some recent games.
Key Factors to Consider
- UConn has a top-15 passing offense (300.5 yards/game), averaging 36.9 points, while Air Force struggles against the pass, ranking near the bottom in passing defense efficiency. UConn is 4-1 in last five games and has covered the spread well recently, highlighting good momentum.
- Recent head-to-head results favor UConn with dominant wins and strong offensive showings, consistent with their statistical advantages this season.
- No significant injuries reported for either team that would affect key offensive or defensive players; UConn QB Joe Fagnano available and performing at career highs.
- Game is at UConn's home stadium with mild weather (42Β°F, no rain), favorable conditions for the Huskies' passing game. Public betting heavily favors UConn with 71% of moneyline bets.
- UConn aims to solidify bowl eligibility and build on recent upset win over Duke, while Air Force is motivated to salvage the season but faces an uphill battle given their record and matchup disadvantages.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UConn -240, Air Force +194 | UConn Huskies | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | UConn -6.5 -115, Air Force +6.5 -105 | UConn Huskies -6.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 63.5 -110, Under 63.5 -110 | Over 63.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 63.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 63.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on UConn Huskies moneyline for a straight win, UConn covering the -6.5 spread, and the total points going over 63.5.
Predicted Score: UConn 38 – Air Force 25