Match Analysis: New York Knicks vs Miami Heat – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 14, 2025
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City
Game Overview
The New York Knicks (7-4) host the Miami Heat (7-5) in an Eastern Conference matchup at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks enter as 4.5-point favorites with a total set at 234.5 points. This is a critical game for both teams as they jockey for playoff positioning in a competitive Eastern Conference.
Key Factors to Consider
- New York Knicks are in exceptional form, posting a 5-0 record in their last five games with a perfect 5-0 against-the-spread cover rate. The Knicks are a dominant 7-0 at home with strong offensive efficiency (125.0 PPG at the Garden) and lockdown home defense. Miami Heat are 7-5 overall but struggle significantly on the road at 2-4 with poor road defensive metrics (allowing 119.5 PPG on the road). Miami's road splits are substantially below their overall performance level.
- Recent matchup data strongly favors the Knicks at home. The Knicks' home court advantage is pronounced with an undefeated 7-0 home record, while Miami's away record is a concerning 2-4. Miami's winning percentage against the spread at home is .833, but on the road drops dramatically to .500.
- No significant injury information provided in available data.
- The game is broadcast on Amazon Prime Video, a neutral platform. Madison Square Garden provides a significant home-court advantage for the Knicks with crowd support and familiarity. The Knicks' recent momentum (5-game winning streak) creates psychological advantage.
- The Knicks are fighting to maintain their conference standing and undefeated home record. Miami desperately needs a road victory to improve their poor away record (2-4) and stay competitive in the playoff race. The Heat face significant motivation pressure given their recent road struggles.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Knicks -225 / Heat +185 | New York Knicks Win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Knicks -4.5 (-120) | New York Knicks -4.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 234.5 (-110) | Over 234.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Knicks 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 234.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 234.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The New York Knicks will defeat the Miami Heat at Madison Square Garden. Expect a moderately high-scoring affair with the Knicks' superior home efficiency and Miami's defensive vulnerabilities on the road combining to produce an over result. The Knicks' elite home performance and Miami's road-specific weaknesses create a strong edge for New York.
Predicted Score: New York Knicks 126, Miami Heat 115