Match Analysis: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Green Bay Phoenix – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 14, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Lee & Penny Anderson Arena, Saint Paul, MN
Game Overview
St. Thomas (MN) hosts Green Bay in a Summit League matchup between two evenly matched 1-2 teams. St. Thomas enters as a heavy favorite despite identical records, reflecting the home court advantage and recent betting market confidence. Green Bay has shown defensive struggles (allowing 80.3 PPG, ranked 224th), while St. Thomas demonstrates offensive firepower with leading scorer N. Minessale averaging 21.3 PPG.
Key Factors to Consider
- Green Bay struggles defensively and ranks 302nd in offensive efficiency (63.5 PPG), losing to Buffalo 83-76 on November 7th before rebounding with an 83-63 win over Ripon on November 10th. St. Thomas maintains more balanced scoring (80.3 PPG allowed) and leads 21.3 PPG through Minessale. Green Bay's scoring margin sits at -25.0 (ranked 322nd), indicating significant offensive deficiency.
- No recent head-to-head data available in provided search results. This is the teams' first matchup or prior meetings lack recent statistical context.
- No injury reports provided in available data. Both teams appear at full roster strength based on available information.
- St. Thomas plays at home with crowd support in a controlled environment. The betting market shows heavy public money backing St. Thomas (100% of money percentages favoring home team in some sportsbooks). Green Bay faces a significant road test with early morning tip-off (1:00 AM UTC) potentially affecting West Coast team performance.
- Both teams sit at 1-2 and face elimination pressure in early season. St. Thomas seeks to establish home dominance, while Green Bay needs a statement road win to salvage tournament credentials. Home court psychological advantage favors St. Thomas significantly.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay +625 | St. Thomas -1000 | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Green Bay +13.5 -110 | St. Thomas -13.5 -110 | St. Thomas -13.5 | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Over/under | Over 154.5 -110 | Under 154.5 -110 | Under 154.5 | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 154.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies will defeat Green Bay Phoenix, covering the 13.5-point spread with a predicted final score of 78-64. The Tommies' superior offensive efficiency, home court advantage, and Green Bay's defensive vulnerabilities create a clear value play on the spread. St. Thomas' moneyline presents poor value at -1000 odds despite high win probability.
Predicted Score: St. Thomas 78, Green Bay 64