Match Analysis: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 13, 2025
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
Game Overview
The Cleveland Cavaliers (8-4, 2nd in Eastern Conference) host the Toronto Raptors (6-5, 8th in Eastern Conference) in an Eastern Conference matchup. The Cavaliers are seeking their fourth consecutive home win, while the Raptors look to upset a strong home team as underdogs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cleveland is averaging 123 points on 45.3% shooting while allowing 117.6 points on 46.6% opponent shooting. Donovan Mitchell leads the Cavaliers with 30.4 PPG and 5.4 APG, while Evan Mobley contributes 20.1 PPG and 4.3 APG. Jarrett Allen recently dropped 30 points in a 130-116 home win over Miami. Toronto shoots 37.8% from three and 78.1% from the free-throw line, while allowing 33% from deep and grabbing 42.1 rebounds per game. Scottie Barnes recorded a double-double (15 points, 11 rebounds) against Brooklyn, and Jakob Poeltl posted a double-double (12 points, 10 rebounds) in his return.
- Toronto holds a 1-0 record against Cleveland this season and is also 1-0 against the spread in head-to-head matchups. However, historical trends show the Cavaliers have covered the spread in nine of their last ten home games against winning-record Raptors teams.
- No significant injuries reported for either team heading into the matchup.
- The Cavaliers have won nine of their last ten home games on the second leg of a back-to-back. Conversely, the Raptors have lost 20 of their last 22 road games against teams with winning records. The Raptors have also failed to cover the spread in nine of their last ten games at this venue following a win. However, underdogs have covered the spread in eight of the Cavaliers' last nine home games at Quicken Loans Arena.
- The Cavaliers are motivated to extend their home winning streak and maintain their second-place seeding in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors, as underdogs in the Eastern Conference, need road wins against quality opponents; they have won three of their last four games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cavaliers -295 | Raptors +240 | Cleveland Cavaliers | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Cavaliers -7.5 (-110) | Raptors +7.5 (-110) | Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 240.5 (-110) | Under 240.5 (-110) | Under 240.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland Cavaliers -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 240.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 240.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Cleveland Cavaliers will win this matchup convincingly, covering the spread. While the Raptors have shown underdog resilience recently, the combination of Cleveland's home dominance, their superior record, elite scoring output led by Mitchell, and Toronto's historical struggles on the road against winning teams heavily favors the home team. Expect a competitive first half, but the Cavaliers pull away in the second half.
Predicted Score: Cavaliers 121, Raptors 113