Match Analysis: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Los Angeles Kings – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-14
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
Game Overview
The Los Angeles Kings visit the Toronto Maple Leafs in a closely matched NHL game. Both teams have similar recent form records, with the Kings slightly favored on the moneyline and spread despite being the away team. The total goals line is set at 5.5, reflecting an expectation of a moderately high scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Kings hold an 8-5-4 record with decent recent form, winning three of their last five games including a streak of two wins. Maple Leafs are 8-8-1 with a recent 2-3 record in their last five, and have struggled against the spread lately. Offensive production is balanced with top scorers like Kempe for Kings and Nylander and Tavares for Maple Leafs impacting play.
- Recent head-to-head data suggest competitive games with a slight edge to the Maple Leafs in simulated outcomes and winning probability according to multiple model-based predictions. Toronto’s home advantage is factored in but the Kings are favored slightly on puck line.
- No major injuries reported that significantly impact key players for either team, sustaining competitiveness for both sides.
- Game played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto presents home-ice advantage to Maple Leafs with strong fan support, but the Kings appear motivated to extend their win streak away.
- Kings are motivated to build consistency and continue their winning streak, while Maple Leafs aim to break a recent losing trend and defend their home ice strongly.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Kings: -112, Toronto Maple Leafs: -108 | Toronto Maple Leafs | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Los Angeles Kings -1.5: +225, Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5: -278 | Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5: -135, Under 5.5: +114 | Over 5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto Maple Leafs 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Maple Leafs to win the moneyline, covering the spread +1.5, with total goals going over 5.5.
Predicted Score: Toronto Maple Leafs 4 – Los Angeles Kings 3