Match Analysis: Fenerbahce SK vs Hapoel Tel Aviv - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 13, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: SAP Garden, Munich
Game Overview
EuroLeague matchup between Fenerbahce SK (5-5 record, 11th place) and Hapoel Tel Aviv (8-2 record, 1st place). This is a neutral venue game due to geopolitical restrictions preventing Turkish and Israeli clubs from meeting in Turkey. Hapoel Tel Aviv is the clear form team, while Fenerbahce has struggled with inconsistency despite strong defensive ranking.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hapoel Tel Aviv has been exceptional with 8 wins in 10 games and a +0.8 point differential, ranking 1st in EuroLeague. Fenerbahce has underperformed at 5-5 with a -6 point differential, suffering disappointing home losses to Crvena Zvezda and Dubai, plus heavy defeats to Real Madrid and Valencia. Fenerbahce ranks 4th defensively but remains in the bottom tier offensively with only Virtus and Asvel scoring lower per possession.
- Limited recent direct comparison data available; however, recent form heavily favors Hapoel Tel Aviv, which has won 8 of its last 10 matches versus Fenerbahce's inconsistent 5-5 start.
- Talen Horton-Tucker (Fenerbahce) has shown flashes but remains limited by injury issues and conditioning concerns. No significant injury data provided for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Fenerbahce lacks a true offensive leader following Nigel Hayes-Davis's departure, with Wade Baldwin struggling to orchestrate play and Marko Guduric less effective than in previous seasons.
- Neutral venue eliminates Fenerbahce's home court advantage. This removes a significant advantage that would typically benefit the Turkish club. The neutral court setting likely benefits the higher-seeded, better-performing Hapoel Tel Aviv.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv is motivated to maintain 1st place standing and has clear momentum. Fenerbahce needs to prove itself after a disappointing start and faces pressure to avoid further slippage in standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fenerbahce -121, Hapoel Tel Aviv -103 | Hapoel Tel Aviv Win | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Fenerbahce -1 (-114), Hapoel Tel Aviv +1 (-109) | Hapoel Tel Aviv +1 | β β β ββ 64% |
| Over/under | Over 165.5 (-113), Under 165.5 (-110) | Under 165.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hapoel Tel Aviv 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 165.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hapoel Tel Aviv covers the spread and wins outright. Despite Fenerbahce's defensive strengths, their offensive limitations and leadership vacuum, combined with Hapoel's elite form and the neutral venue negating home advantage, make the away team the superior value.
Predicted Score: Hapoel Tel Aviv 82, Fenerbahce 81
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