Match Analysis: Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Alex G. Spanos Center, Stockton, CA
Game Overview
Pacific Tigers (1-1) host the struggling Long Beach St 49ers (0-2) at home. Pacific is favored heavily in moneyline and spread markets due to superior recent form, home advantage, and a significantly better offensive and defensive profile. Long Beach State is on a long losing streak with poor road performance and offensive struggles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pacific has a 1-1 record with solid home performances and efficiency (47% FG). Long Beach State is 0-2, losing by large margins and scoring poorly (average ~53.5 PPG), with the last 17 games lost overall.
- Recent matchups heavily favor Pacific, with Long Beach State consistently losing and struggling to cover large spreads. Pacific tends to dominate at home.
- No significant injury reports affecting key players for either team at this time.
- Home court advantage for Pacific is a notable factor. Both teams have faced tough travel schedules, but Long Beach State's road struggles amplify the disadvantage.
- Pacific seeks to build on a modestly positive start and establish home dominance. Long Beach State aims to break a long skid but shows little indication of turnaround momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -610, away: +440 | Pacific Tigers | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | home: -120, away: -102 | Pacific Tigers -9.5 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Under 144.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pacific Tigers -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 144.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 144.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pacific Tigers to win outright with a cover on the -9.5 spread and the game total to go under 144.5 points.
Predicted Score: Pacific Tigers 78 – Long Beach St 64