Match Analysis: Oregon St Beavers vs North Texas Mean Green – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 13, 2025
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Gill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR
Game Overview
Undefeated North Texas Mean Green (3-0) travel to face undefeated Oregon State Beavers (2-0) in a battle of perfect records. North Texas enters as the away underdog despite their superior record, while Oregon State looks to protect home court. This matchup features two teams with contrasting styles: North Texas built on suffocating defense (56.3 PPG allowed, 29th in nation) and ball security, while Oregon State relies on offensive efficiency (45.8% FG, 71.5 PPG) and sophomore guard Jordan Pope's playmaking.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas defensive dominance is the defining factor: they force 18.7 turnovers per game and allow just 56.3 points per contest (29th nationally). Their offensive efficiency is moderate (35.8% FG, 4-15 from three in last game), but they compensate through rebounding (33 boards, 10 offensive) and free throw shooting (81.5%). Oregon State operates at 45.8% FG efficiency (184th nationally) but scores efficiently at 71.5 PPG with strong free throw shooting (76.5%). Pope's 19.5 PPG and 45% three-point shooting provide consistent offensive firepower.
- No prior head-to-head history between these programs in recent seasons. This is a neutral matchup in terms of historical context.
- No significant injuries reported for either team based on available data.
- Oregon State plays at home with a 2-0 home record, providing a significant home court advantage. North Texas is 0-0 on the road this season. The game is scheduled for 2:30 AM UTC (9:30 PM ET Wednesday), an unconventional tipoff time that may affect both teams but typically favors the home team.
- Both teams are undefeated and seeking to remain perfect. Oregon State is motivated to defend home court against a quality opponent. North Texas has extra motivation to prove their 3-0 record is legitimate against a strong defensive matchup.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas +128 / Oregon State -154 | Oregon State Beavers ML | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | North Texas +2.5 -110 / Oregon State -2.5 -110 | Oregon State -2.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
| Over/under | Over 136.5 -110 / Under 136.5 -110 | Under 136.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oregon St Beavers 41% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 136.5 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Oregon St Beavers at 41% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oregon State Beavers win 74-69 and cover the -2.5 spread. North Texas' elite defense will keep the game tight, but Oregon State's home court advantage, Jordan Pope's scoring consistency, and their superior offensive efficiency will prove decisive in a low-scoring affair.
Predicted Score: Oregon State 74, North Texas 69