Match Analysis: Colorado St Rams vs Cal Poly Mustangs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Moby Arena, Fort Collins
Game Overview
The Colorado State Rams (2-0) host the Cal Poly Mustangs (2-1) in a Mountain West matchup. Colorado State enters undefeated and coming off a convincing 97-74 home win, while Cal Poly just edged Seattle 73-71 on the road. Colorado State is a heavy favorite at home and shows strong defensive and offensive balance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Colorado State has started the season 2-0, showing strong offensive efficiency and defensive solidity allowing only 69 points per game on average. Cal Poly is 2-1 with closer, lower-scoring games and has struggled defensively, allowing 81+ points recently.
- Recent matches favor Colorado State with solid wins and consistent covering of double-digit spreads. Historical matchups show Colorado State dominance, especially at home.
- No significant injuries reported for either team, suggesting both teams will compete at full strength.
- The game is hosted at Colorado Stateβs well-known home court advantage in Moby Arena, boosting their confidence and performance. Early season form also reduces uncertainty.
- Colorado State is motivated to assert dominance early in the season and maintain an unbeaten home record. Cal Poly aims to stay competitive but is unlikely to shift momentum significantly in this mismatch.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cal Poly Mustangs: +1280, Colorado St Rams: -3500 | Colorado St Rams | β β β β β 93% |
| Spread | Cal Poly Mustangs +17.5: -102, Colorado St Rams -17.5: -120 | Colorado St Rams -17.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over 167.5: -110, Under 167.5: -110 | Under 167.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado St Rams -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 167.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 167.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Colorado State Rams moneyline and covering the -17.5 spread, with the game to finish under the total points line of 167.5
Predicted Score: Colorado State Rams 87 – Cal Poly Mustangs 68