Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Strahan Coliseum at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX
Game Overview
Both Texas State Bobcats and UTSA Roadrunners enter the game with similar recent results but contrasting styles. Texas State is slightly favored by bookmakers at home with a close spread and balanced moneyline odds. UTSA's defense is strong, limiting opponents' shooting percentages, but their recent offensive struggles lower their scoring efficiency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas State is 1-2, with a recent loss to Tulane, shooting 43.3% from the field but struggling on rebounds. UTSA is 1-1, with a dominant defensive profile holding opponents to low FG %, but with inconsistent shooting, particularly dropping to 28.2% in the last game.
- Both teams have mixed recent form with Texas State historically winning about 55.9% of similar matchups and performing slightly better ATS. No recent direct encounters available but statistical trends favor Texas State marginally.
- No major injury reports impact either team at this time.
- Texas State is playing at home and has shown better cover rates at home. UTSA has underperformed when playing with rest disadvantages, which could factor in here. Public betting is heavily skewed towards Texas State.
- Both teams aim to improve early season records; Texas State likely motivated to defend home court after recent losses, while UTSA aims to overcome offensive inconsistencies.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -115, away: -105 | Texas State Bobcats | β β β ββ 63% |
| Spread | home: 105, away: -125 | Texas State Bobcats -1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Under 147.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 147.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Take Texas State Bobcats to cover the -1.5 spread and win outright, with a moderately high confidence in moneyline and spread bets. Expect the total score to stay under 147.5 due to defensive strengths and recent low-scoring trends at Texas State's home night games.
Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 75 – 70 UTSA Roadrunners