Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Benchmark International Arena
Game Overview
Tampa Bay Lightning host New York Rangers in a midweek NHL matchup. Both teams feature strong goaltending and defensive structures, with Lightning holding a slight edge in special teams and home-ice advantage. Rangers enter with momentum on the road, but Lightningβs recent form and depth at home tilt the matchup in their favor.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lightning: 8-5-2, 4-3-0 home; Rangers: 8-7-2, 7-1-1 road. Lightning have better offensive output (3.07 GF/G) but higher goals against (2.73 GA/G). Rangers excel defensively on the road (2.53 GA/G) and have won 3 of last 5. Lightningβs special teams (PK and PP) are stronger, especially if key players return.
- Recent H2H favors Lightning, especially at home. Lightning have won 3 of last 5 meetings, with 4 of those games going over 5.5 goals. Rangers have struggled to contain Lightningβs power play in recent matchups.
- Cirelli and McDonagh expected back for Lightning, boosting their defensive depth and penalty kill. Rangers have no major reported absences, but their blue line has been tested recently.
- Game played at Benchmark International Arena, Lightningβs home ice. Crowd support and familiarity with the rink give Lightning a slight edge. Weather and travel not a factor.
- Both teams are in playoff contention. Lightning need wins to solidify home-ice advantage, while Rangers seek to maintain momentum on a tough road trip. Lightningβs motivation is slightly higher given home-ice stakes.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -150, away: 120 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Not available |
| Spread | home: 165, away: -210 | New York Rangers +1.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: -112, under: -112 | Under 6 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 6 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 6 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Lightning win, Rangers cover the spread, Under 6 goals.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Rangers 2