Match Analysis: East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Northern Kentucky Norse – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Freedom Hall Civic Center, Johnson City
Game Overview
East Tennessee State hosts Northern Kentucky in a non-conference matchup. Both teams enter 1-1, with ETSU showing strong home form and defensive rebounding, while NKU boasts high offensive output but defensive vulnerabilities on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- ETSU is averaging 83 PPG and 35 RPG, shooting 46.7% from the field but only 25.9% from three. NKU is averaging 91 PPG on 50.7% shooting but allowing 82 PPG and struggling defensively away from home. ETSUβs rebounding and defensive discipline are clear advantages.
- Recent trends favor ETSU at home, with the Buccaneers winning 7 of their last 7 night games at Freedom Hall against non-AP opponents. NKU has lost 8 of its last 9 night games against non-conference foes.
- No injuries reported for either team.
- ETSUβs home-court advantage is significant, with a strong record in night games at Freedom Hall. NKUβs road defense has been a liability, and the pace of play favors ETSUβs ability to control tempo.
- Both teams are motivated to build momentum early in the season. ETSU seeks to rebound from a recent road loss, while NKU looks to prove itself against a tough home opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -290 | East Tennessee St Buccaneers | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | -7.5 -108 | East Tennessee St Buccaneers -7.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | 143.5 -110 | Under | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | East Tennessee St Buccaneers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 143.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 143.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
East Tennessee State will win and cover the spread, with the game finishing under the total points line.
Predicted Score: East Tennessee State 78, Northern Kentucky 68