Match Analysis: Virginia Tech Hokies vs Saint Joseph's Hawks - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Cassell Coliseum, Blacksburg, VA
Game Overview
Virginia Tech hosts Saint Joseph's in a non-conference matchup with both teams entering undefeated at 2-0. The Hokies are heavily favored as a 12.5-point home favorite, reflecting their superior program status and home court advantage. This represents a significant spread, suggesting the market views Virginia Tech as substantially stronger despite Saint Joseph's competitive start to the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Virginia Tech comes off a 107-101 overtime victory against Providence, demonstrating resilience in close games. They've averaged 102.5 points per game while shooting 48.4% from the field and 38% from three-point range. Saint Joseph's has won decisively against Lafayette (85-76) and Drexel (76-65), showing balanced performance. Virginia Tech has covered the spread in their last two games, with totals going over in both contests. Saint Joseph's is 2-0 overall with similar over results in both games.[3][4][6]
- Saint Joseph's defeated Virginia Tech 82-62 in Blacksburg last season, a significant historical indicator that suggests the Hawks can compete with the Hokies. However, that result was last season and may not reflect current roster composition or form.[6]
- No injury reports are available in the current data. Assume full roster availability for both teams unless otherwise noted.[5]
- Virginia Tech plays at home where they are 2-0 against the spread. The game features a tempo mismatch: Virginia Tech plays at 120th pace while Saint Joseph's is at 157th, suggesting the Hawks want to run more. Saint Joseph's features two long, athletic wings (Glover-Toscano 6-6 and Haskins 6-8) who can disrupt Virginia Tech's perimeter scorers. Virginia Tech's defense allowed Providence to shoot 45% from the field and get to the line 25 times, indicating potential defensive vulnerabilities.[6]
- Both teams are undefeated and seeking to maintain perfect records. Virginia Tech has higher tournament expectations and program prestige, while Saint Joseph's seeks a quality non-conference win to build their resume. Saint Joseph's may be particularly motivated given their head-to-head success last season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Virginia Tech -1100 / Saint Joseph's +680 | Virginia Tech Moneyline | β β β β β 76% |
| Spread | Virginia Tech -12.5 (-120) / Saint Joseph's +12.5 (-102) | Saint Joseph's +12.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 156.5 (-110) / Under 156.5 (-110) | Over 156.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Virginia Tech Hokies 615% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 156.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Virginia Tech Hokies at 615% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 90.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Virginia Tech wins by 11-13 points. While Virginia Tech is the superior team with home court advantage and strong early season form, the 12.5-point spread is slightly inflated given Saint Joseph's defensive capabilities, athletic wings, and proven ability to compete with the Hokies. The market has overreacted to Virginia Tech's recent form and undervalued Saint Joseph's competitive profile.
Predicted Score: Virginia Tech 87, Saint Joseph's 76
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