Match Analysis: Longwood Lancers vs James Madison Dukes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Joan Perry Brock Center, Farmville, VA
Game Overview
James Madison (2-1) travels to face Longwood (1-1) in a non-conference matchup. JMU enters as the slight road favorite despite Longwood's home-court advantage, reflecting their superior record and overall performance metrics. This is an early-season contest where both teams are still establishing their identity and offensive rhythm.
Key Factors to Consider
- James Madison averages 75.0 PPG on 42.5% FG and 33.0% 3PT shooting with strong ball movement (22nd in nation with assists). They pull down 37.7 RPG and commit 14.0 turnovers per game. Longwood averages 76.0 PPG on 41.7% FG shooting (284th in nation) with 41.5 RPG and 13.5 turnovers per game. JMU's recent win over Coppin State (84-70) demonstrates defensive capability. Longwood's loss to Pittsburgh (78-60) reveals offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities, though they showed ball security with only 7 turnovers.
- No historical head-to-head data available in the search results. This appears to be a rare or first matchup between these programs.
- No injury information provided in available search results.
- Longwood plays at home, traditionally a 3-4 point advantage. However, the game is scheduled for midnight ET, an unusual time that may impact player performance and rest. Early-season college basketball often features inconsistent play and defensive lapses as teams develop chemistry.
- Both teams are early in their seasons seeking to build winning records. JMU has momentum with a 2-1 start and likely seeks to prove themselves on the road. Longwood is at 1-1 and playing at home, providing motivation to secure a confidence-building win after the Pittsburgh loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | JMU +110 / Longwood -130 | James Madison Dukes | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | JMU +1.5 -108 / Longwood -1.5 -112 | James Madison +1.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
| Over/under | Over 153.5 -105 / Under 153.5 -115 | Under 153.5 | β β β ββ 59% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes 22% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 153.5 -1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: James Madison Dukes at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
James Madison Dukes to win the game outright. Despite playing on the road at midnight, JMU's superior ball movement, better shooting efficiency, and 2-1 record give them an edge. Longwood's 284th-ranked offensive efficiency and recent 18-point loss to Pittsburgh suggest they lack the offensive firepower to keep pace with JMU's balanced attack.
Predicted Score: James Madison 73, Longwood 70