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Missouri St Bears vs. Arkansas St Red Wolves Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Missouri St Bears vs Arkansas St Red Wolves – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-12
  • Time: 1:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Great Southern Bank Arena, Springfield, MO

Game Overview

Missouri State Bears (2-0) host the Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-1) with Missouri State undefeated and dominant in recent performances, while Arkansas State comes off a heavy road loss.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Missouri State is 2-0, scoring 194 points total and allowing 127, showcasing strong offense and defense. Arkansas State is 1-1 with a problematic defense, allowing 175 points and scoring only 154. Missouri State recently won by nearly 50 points while Arkansas State lost by 25 in their last respective games.
  • The last meeting saw Missouri State defeat Arkansas State decisively 75-53, with Missouri State showing consistent superiority in home non-conference games.
  • No significant injuries reported for either team at this time.
  • Missouri State has strong home court advantage, winning eight straight non-conference home games. Arkansas State struggles on the road especially at night, losing 12 of 14 recent night road non-conference games.
  • Missouri State is motivated to maintain undefeated momentum on home court early in the season. Arkansas State needs to rebound from a heavy loss but has less consistent recent form and defensive struggles.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Missouri State: -142, Arkansas State: +120 Missouri State Bears ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Missouri State -2.5 (-102), Arkansas State +2.5 (-118) Missouri State Bears -2.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 151.5 (-110), Under 151.5 (-110) Under 151.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Missouri St Bears 36%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 151.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Missouri St Bears at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Missouri State Bears to win outright, cover the -2.5 spread, with the game total likely to fall under 151.5 points.

Predicted Score: Missouri State 77 – Arkansas State 69


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Missouri St Bears vs. Arkansas St Red Wolves Prediction

Match Analysis: Missouri St Bears vs Arkansas St Red Wolves – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-11-12 Time: 1:00 AM UTC Location: Great Southern Bank Arena, Springfield, MO Game Overview Missouri State Bears (2-0) host the Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-1) with Missouri State undefeated and dominant in recent performances, while Arkansas State comes off a […]

Arkansas St Red Wolves Basketball Missouri St Bears November 12, 2025

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Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction NBA in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Sacramento Kings vs Denver Nuggets – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 11, 2025
  • Time: 4:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California

Game Overview

The Denver Nuggets (7-2), currently third in the Western Conference, visit the struggling Sacramento Kings (3-7) who sit 13th in the West. Denver enters on a four-game winning streak with elite offensive efficiency, while Sacramento has lost back-to-back games and allows the league's worst defense at 123.9 PPG.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Denver averages 124.2 PPG on 50.7% shooting while allowing just 111.0 PPG (3rd in league defense). Sacramento averages only 115.3 PPG and surrenders 123.9 PPG—among the worst defensively. Denver's road record (1-2) is a minor concern but offset by current form. Sacramento is just 2-3 at home, showing vulnerability.
  • Denver has won 7 of their last 10 H2H matchups against Sacramento, establishing clear dominance in the series.
  • No significant injuries reported for either team. Nikola Jokic (averaging 25.2 PPG, 13.0 RPG, 11.9 APG on elite 64.4% FG) remains fully healthy and operating at MVP-caliber efficiency.
  • The game is nationally televised on NBC/Peacock, adding pressure and motivation for Denver. Sacramento's poor defensive metrics suggest they will struggle to contain Denver's high-powered offense led by Jokic, Murray (22.8 PPG), and Gordon (20.1 PPG).
  • Denver seeks to build on championship contention form during their four-game winning streak. Sacramento faces must-win pressure at home but their recent performance (144-117 loss to Minnesota) suggests low confidence and execution issues.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Denver -345 / Sacramento +275 Denver Nuggets ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Denver -8.5 (-110) Denver Nuggets -8.5 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under 242.5 (-110 each side) Under 242.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Denver Nuggets 1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 242.5 30%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 242.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Denver Nuggets will win decisively, covering the spread by approximately 10 points. The Nuggets' defensive prowess combined with offensive firepower will overwhelm Sacramento's porous defense. Expect a controlled pace game with the total staying under the number.

Predicted Score: Denver 118, Sacramento 106


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Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Creighton Bluejays Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Creighton Bluejays – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 11, 2025
  • Time: 3:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokana, Washington

Game Overview

No. 19 Gonzaga Bulldogs (2-0) host No. 23 Creighton Bluejays (1-0) in a top-25 matchup. Gonzaga enters undefeated at home with dominant victories, while Creighton begins conference play with a solid road record historically. This is a classic matchup between a high-efficiency Gonzaga team and an improving Creighton squad.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Gonzaga is 2-0 with offensive output of 181 and 83 points in consecutive wins (vs Oklahoma 83-68, earlier victory). Creighton is 1-0 with a 92-76 home win vs South Dakota. Gonzaga's point differential is +70, indicating dominant early-season form. Creighton showed defensive solidity but faces a significant step up in competition.
  • Gonzaga leads the recent series 3-0, with the most recent matchup in the 2021 NCAA Tournament won 83-65 by Gonzaga. Historically, Creighton leads the all-time series 6-5, but Gonzaga has clearly dominated the modern era matchup.
  • No significant injuries reported for either team. Both squads appear at full strength entering this contest.
  • Gonzaga plays at home in 'The Kennel,' providing court advantage. The game is on ESPN with prime late-night visibility. Creighton travels on short notice as an away team, which historically has been challenging (though their 2024-25 road record was strong at .818, 9-2-0).
  • Gonzaga seeks to maintain perfect home record and top-25 status. Creighton aims to prove legitimacy against elite competition and validate their ranking. Both teams have motivation, but Gonzaga's home-court advantage and undefeated record provide psychological edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gonzaga -950 | Creighton +625 Gonzaga Bulldogs ★★★★☆ 81%
Spread Gonzaga -11.5 -115 | Creighton +11.5 -105 Gonzaga -11.5 ★★★★☆ 74%
Over/under Over 167.5 -105 | Under 167.5 -115 Under 167.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Gonzaga Bulldogs -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 167.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 167.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gonzaga Bulldogs win 81-68, covering the spread with a total under 166.5 points. The Bulldogs' defensive intensity and efficient offense overcome Creighton's solid early-season play. The game features tighter margins and lower-scoring efficiency than preseason models, driven by defensive pressure.

Predicted Score: Gonzaga 81, Creighton 68


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Sacramento St Hornets vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Sacramento St Hornets vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 12, 2025
  • Time: 3:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Hornet Pavilion, Sacramento, CA

Game Overview

UC Santa Barbara (2-0) travels to face Sacramento State (2-0) in a matchup between two unbeaten teams in their early-season campaigns. UCSB enters as a significant favorite, with the Gauchos showing superior efficiency on both ends of the floor. This represents UCSB's first true road test, while Sacramento State looks to protect their home court after strong early performances.

Key Factors to Consider

  • UC Santa Barbara has been exceptionally efficient, averaging 91.5 points per game while holding opponents to just 70.5 PPG, resulting in a +21 point differential. The Gauchos shoot 51.7% from the field, grab 42.5 rebounds per game, and average 16 assists, demonstrating balanced offensive execution. Key player Caleb Smith leads with 18.5 PPG on 61.1% shooting with 71.4% free throw accuracy. Recent wins include a dominant 98-67 rout of San Francisco State and an 85-74 victory over San Jose State. Sacramento State has posted wins over Dominican University (103-79) and William Jessup Warriors (86-76), but has struggled historically, losing six of their last six games against Big West Conference opponents and losing the first half in each of their last seven non-conference games.
  • In their last matchup on November 30, 2018, UCSB dominated Sacramento State 75-58, with the Gauchos controlling the game decisively. This historical edge provides additional confidence for UCSB's superior execution level.
  • No injuries reported for either team in the available data.
  • This is UCSB's first road game of the season, which could introduce some adjustment challenges despite their strong overall performance. Sacramento State is playing at home where they are 2-0, a potential advantage. However, Sacramento State has lost seven of their last nine road night games against non-conference opponents when away, suggesting their home court is critical to their success.
  • UCSB is motivated to extend their perfect record and prove themselves in a road environment. Sacramento State is motivated to protect their home court but faces historical pressure having lost significantly to UCSB previously. The Hornets have recent momentum with back-to-back home wins but lack the offensive consistency UCSB has demonstrated.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Sacramento St +380 | UCSB -500 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Sacramento St +9.5 -110 | UCSB -9.5 -110 UC Santa Barbara -9.5 ★★★★☆ 74%
Over/under Over 161.5 -112 | Under 161.5 -108 Under 161.5 ★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline UC Santa Barbara Gauchos -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 161.5 39%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 39% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

UC Santa Barbara will win this matchup convincingly. The Gauchos' superior efficiency, balanced offensive attack, dominant rebounding, and strong defensive discipline should prove too much for Sacramento State despite the road disadvantage. UCSB's 51.7% field goal shooting, 16 assists per game, and +21 point differential far exceed Sacramento State's capabilities. While Sacramento State will benefit from home court advantage, the talent and efficiency gap is too significant to overcome.

Predicted Score: UCSB 82, Sacramento State 68


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UNLV Rebels vs. Montana Grizzlies Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: UNLV Rebels vs Montana Grizzlies – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 12, 2025
  • Time: 3:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

UNLV Rebels (1-1) host Montana Grizzlies (2-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. UNLV enters as a heavy favorite following a commanding 101-69 victory over Chattanooga, while Montana seeks to bounce back from a 91-68 road loss at Stanford. The Rebels' home-court advantage and superior athleticism position them as strong favorites, though Montana's rebounding prowess and balanced offensive approach could provide surprises.

Key Factors to Consider

  • UNLV has demonstrated significant offensive firepower, led by Naas Cunningham (25 points in last game), with the Rebels shooting efficiently and controlling pace. Montana averages 82.3 PPG on 48.5% FG but struggled on the road against Stanford's tempo. The Grizzlies lead the glass with 49.3 rebounds per game and create 12.7 assists per game, showcasing balanced, unselfish play. However, UNLV allows only 77.5 PPG at home compared to Montana's 57.0 PPG allowed, indicating UNLV's offensive efficiency advantage.
  • No prior matchup history available between these programs in recent seasons. This is a neutral first meeting with no historical patterns to reference.
  • UNLV has several reported injuries: Che (G, Foot), Isaac Williamson (G, Foot), Mason Abittan (C, Undisclosed as of October 28), and Emmanuel Stephen (C, Hip). These injuries, particularly to guards and the frontcourt, may impact UNLV's depth, though Cunningham's availability and performance suggest the team is functional despite absences.
  • UNLV seeks to build momentum at home after the strong win over Chattanooga. Montana faces motivation to rebound from a disappointing road loss and prove their early-season 2-1 start wasn't a fluke. However, UNLV's home-court advantage (Thomas & Mack Center typically favors the Rebels) and recent form give them psychological edge.
  • Game time of 3:00 AM UTC is notably late for Eastern time viewers (10:00 PM ET) but standard for West Coast broadcasts. Mountain West Network exposure favors UNLV as the home team. Las Vegas environment typically provides energy for UNLV, while Montana as a mid-major faces travel fatigue and adjustment to elite athletic competition.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline UNLV -470, Montana +360 UNLV Rebels ★★★★☆ 76%
Spread UNLV -9.5 (-110), Montana +9.5 (-110) UNLV -9.5 ★★★★☆ 71%
Over/under Over 156.5 (-108), Under 156.5 (-112) Over 156.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline UNLV Rebels -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 156.5 19%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 156.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

UNLV defeats Montana with moderate-to-strong coverage of the 9.5-point spread. The Rebels' offensive efficiency, home-court advantage, and Cunningham's scoring prowess should overcome Montana's rebounding strength. Expect a controlled game where UNLV's pace and athleticism dominate on the glass despite Montana's size advantage.

Predicted Score: UNLV 96, Montana 78


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Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Ohio Bobcats Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Saint Mary's Gaels vs Ohio Bobcats – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-12
  • Time: 3:00 AM UTC
  • Location: University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA

Game Overview

The Saint Mary's Gaels (2-0) host the Ohio Bobcats (1-1) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. Saint Mary's is currently undefeated, showing efficient shooting, strong rebounding, and excellent free-throw shooting. Ohio is coming off a mixed start with a strong shooting performance in their last game but has struggled on the road and against solid opponents.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Saint Mary's is 2-0 overall with an average scoring output of 85.5 points per game, shooting 57.8% from the field and hitting 93.1% from the line recently. Ohio is 1-1, showing decent field goal percentage (50.9%) but poor three-point accuracy (12.5% in last game) and has lost 4 of their last 5 overall.
  • Teams have not met since 2007, when Saint Mary's won 70-63. Saint Mary's has a strong home record, winning their last 16 night games at University Credit Union Pavilion.
  • Ohio has an undisclosed injury mention for Wessels; no significant injury concerns reported for Saint Mary's.
  • Saint Mary's benefits from playing at home with strong crowd support and night-game dominance. Ohio’s travel and recent form suggest a disadvantage.
  • Saint Mary's aims to maintain their unbeaten start and extend their home dominance. Ohio looks to rebalance after a close loss and an overall tough start but faces a challenging environment.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Saint Mary's -2500 / Ohio +1100 Saint Mary's ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Saint Mary's -17.5 (-115) Saint Mary's -17.5 ★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under Over 144.5 (-115) / Under 144.5 (-105) Under 144.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Saint Mary's Gaels -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 144.5 37%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 144.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Saint Mary's Gaels will win convincingly, covering the spread and the total points will stay under 144.5.

Predicted Score: Saint Mary's 79 – Ohio 60


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CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. Western Illinois Leathernecks Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners vs Western Illinois Leathernecks – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-12
  • Time: 2:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Icardo Center, Bakersfield, CA

Game Overview

CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners host Western Illinois Leathernecks in a non-conference NCAAB matchup. Both teams are early in their seasons, with CSU Bakersfield entering at 1-1 and Western Illinois at 0-2. The Roadrunners are favored at home, with the spread set at -6.5 and the total at 143.5 points.

Key Factors to Consider

  • CSU Bakersfield has shown moderate offensive efficiency and solid defense in their first two games, while Western Illinois has struggled offensively, shooting below 41% from the field in their last outing and failing to score more than 58 points. Western Illinois also allowed Iowa to shoot 52% in their last game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • No recent head-to-head matchups are available for these teams, so the analysis is based on current season form and statistical trends.
  • No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
  • CSU Bakersfield plays at home, which typically provides a slight edge in college basketball. The game is being played at the Icardo Center, a venue where the Roadrunners have a strong home record in recent years.
  • Western Illinois is seeking their first win of the season and may be motivated to avoid an 0-3 start. CSU Bakersfield will look to build momentum after a split in their first two games.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -235 CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread -105 CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners -6.5 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under -110 Under 143.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners 5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 143.5 30%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 143.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

CSU Bakersfield covers the -6.5 spread and wins outright, but the game stays under the total due to Western Illinois's offensive struggles and CSU Bakersfield's defensive discipline.

Predicted Score: CSU Bakersfield 72, Western Illinois 68


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Arizona Wildcats vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Arizona Wildcats vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-12
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McKale Memorial Center, Tucson, AZ

Game Overview

Arizona Wildcats (2-0) host Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (1-1) in a non-conference matchup. Arizona is a heavy favorite, with the spread set at -34.5 and the total at 164.5. The Wildcats are coming off a dominant win, while Northern Arizona showed offensive flashes but struggled defensively in their loss to Drake.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Arizona is averaging 93 points per game and allowing 77, while Northern Arizona is scoring 79 and allowing 66. Arizona's offense is efficient, shooting over 50% in their last game, while Northern Arizona's defense has been inconsistent, especially against quality opponents.
  • Arizona leads the all-time series 39-0, with the last meeting a 81-52 win in 2021. The Wildcats have covered the spread in recent matchups.
  • No significant injuries reported for either team.
  • Arizona is playing at home in a hostile environment, which historically amplifies their dominance. Northern Arizona is on the road after a tough loss to Drake.
  • Arizona is motivated to maintain their undefeated record and build momentum for conference play. Northern Arizona is looking to bounce back from their loss and prove they can compete with Power 5 teams.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -10000 Arizona Wildcats ★★★★★ 95%
Spread -34.5 -110 Arizona Wildcats -34.5 ★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under 164.5 -115 Under 164.5 ★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Arizona Wildcats -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 164.5 37%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 164.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Arizona Wildcats to win by more than 34.5 points and the game to finish under 164.5 points.

Predicted Score: Arizona 96, Northern Arizona 63


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UTEP Miners vs. Loyola Marymount Lions Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: UTEP Miners vs Loyola Marymount Lions – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-12
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Don Haskins Center

Game Overview

The UTEP Miners (2-0) host the Loyola Marymount Lions (3-0) in a non-conference matchup. Both teams are off to strong starts, with UTEP averaging 102.5 points per game and shooting 56.4% from the field, while Loyola Marymount is averaging 100.3 points per game and allowing just 62.7 points per game. The Lions are slight favorites on the road, but UTEP’s home-court advantage and offensive efficiency make this a high-value matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

  • UTEP is averaging 102.5 PPG on 56.4% shooting, ranking 12th nationally in field goal percentage. Loyola Marymount is averaging 100.3 PPG on 55.2% shooting and allowing only 62.7 PPG, with strong rebounding and defensive metrics. Both teams are efficient offensively and defensively, but UTEP’s home scoring environment is a major factor.
  • Loyola Marymount won the most recent meeting 67-47 as 3.5-point home favorites. UTEP won the prior meeting in 1999 by 26 points. The Lions have a 2-1 edge in the series, but UTEP’s recent offensive explosion suggests a different dynamic this time.
  • No significant injuries reported for either team.
  • The game is at Don Haskins Center, a strong home-court advantage for UTEP. The Miners are 2-0 at home this season, averaging 102.5 PPG. The Lions are 3-0 on the road, but this is their first true road test against a high-scoring team.
  • Both teams are undefeated and looking to build momentum. UTEP is motivated to prove themselves against a strong West Coast opponent, while Loyola Marymount wants to extend their win streak and validate their early-season success.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Loyola Marymount Lions: -155, UTEP Miners: 130 Loyola Marymount Lions Not available
Spread Loyola Marymount Lions: -2.5, UTEP Miners: 2.5 UTEP Miners +2.5 Not available
Over/under Over: 147.5, Under: 147.5 Over 147.5 Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Loyola Marymount Lions -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 147.5 19%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 147.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

UTEP covers the spread and keeps the game close, but Loyola Marymount’s defense and experience edges them out in a tight contest. The total is likely to go over due to both teams’ offensive efficiency and high-scoring environments.

Predicted Score: UTEP 76, Loyola Marymount 74


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Utah Jazz vs. Indiana Pacers Prediction NBA in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Utah Jazz vs Indiana Pacers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 11, 2025
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah

Game Overview

The Indiana Pacers (1-9) travel to face the Utah Jazz (3-7) in a matchup between two struggling teams. The Pacers enter on a four-game losing streak with the worst record in the league, while the Jazz have lost three straight. This contest features a tight spread of -2.5 for Indiana, reflecting the competitive nature of the matchup despite the Pacers' slight favorability.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Pacers are in free fall, losing 9 of their last 10 games and averaging just 107.6 points on 39.6% shooting while allowing 118.7 points on 46.2% shooting. The Jazz rank 25th in both offensive (112.2 PPG) and defensive (120.1 PPG) efficiency. However, the Jazz have defensive strength in rebounding (4th in the league at 48.1 RPG) and maintain strong assist numbers (9th, 27.5 APG). The Pacers have standout individual performances from Bennedict Mathurin (31 PPG, 7 RPG) and Pascal Siakam (24.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG), though team efficiency remains poor.
  • No recent head-to-head historical data provided in available sources. This is the first matchup consideration of the season between these teams.
  • T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Taelon Peter (groin) are both listed as questionable for the Pacers. These potential absences could further impact Indiana's already-struggling offense and ball-handling, particularly if McConnell remains unavailable.
  • The game is played in Salt Lake City, giving the Jazz a home-court advantage. The Jazz have shown resilience at home (2-2 record) despite overall struggles. The Pacers are 0-5 on the road, indicating severe travel and away-game struggles.
  • Both teams are desperate to stop losing streaks, but the Pacers' catastrophic road record (0-5) versus the Jazz's home viability (2-2) creates psychological momentum advantages for Utah. The Jazz face an opponent in true freefall, providing an opportunity to build confidence at home.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Pacers -135 / Jazz +114 Utah Jazz ML +114 ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Pacers -2.5 (-105) / Jazz +2.5 (-115) Utah Jazz +2.5 (-115) ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 231.5 (-108) / Under 231.5 (-112) Under 231.5 (-112) ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Utah Jazz 20%
Spread Utah Jazz 2.5 19%
Over/Under Under 231.5 0%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Utah Jazz at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Utah Jazz will cover the +2.5 spread against the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers are technically favored by sportsbooks, the Jazz's home-court advantage, superior defensive rebounding, and significantly better home record (2-2) outweigh Indiana's individual star power. The Pacers' 0-5 road record is unsustainable and represents a critical vulnerability that the Jazz will exploit.

Predicted Score: Utah Jazz 115, Indiana Pacers 112


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