Match Analysis: Wright St Raiders vs Toledo Rockets - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Ervin J. Nutter Center, Fairborn, Ohio
Game Overview
Wright State Raiders (1-1) host the struggling Toledo Rockets (0-2) in a non-conference matchup. Toledo arrives on a two-game losing streak, while Wright State seeks to build momentum at home after a road loss to California. This matchup features two mid-tier mid-major programs with contrasting trajectories early in the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toledo is 0-2 on the season with significant losses to Marshall (85-73) and another unnamed opponent. The Rockets are averaging 73.5 PPG on 43.7% shooting with 80.5 PPG allowed. Wright State stands at 1-1 after losing 77-67 on the road to California but maintaining a 1-0 home record. Wright State has shown defensive competence, limiting opponents to 114 points across two games.
- In their last two meetings, Toledo holds the edge with an 86-77 home win and a 78-77 road victory. The teams split their last four head-to-head matchups with two wins apiece, suggesting relatively balanced competition historically. However, Toledo's current form has deteriorated significantly since those contests.
- No significant injuries reported in available data for either team.
- Wright State possesses a strong home court advantage, having maintained a 1-0 home record this season and benefiting from crowd support at Nutter Center. Toledo is traveling on the road without momentum. The game lacks national coverage, suggesting lower-profile competition that may attract sharper action on the spread.
- Wright State is motivated to protect home court and build early-season momentum after a road loss. Toledo desperately needs a win to avoid falling to 0-3 and salvage early confidence. However, Toledo's motivation may be tempered by lack of execution in recent games.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toledo +195 | Wright State -238 | Wright State Moneyline | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Toledo +5.5 -112 | Wright State -5.5 -108 | Wright State -5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 157.5 -115 | Under 157.5 -105 | Under 157.5 | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Wright St Raiders 109% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 157.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Wright St Raiders at 109% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 56.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Wright State Raiders will defeat Toledo Rockets with a margin exceeding the spread. Wright State's home-court advantage, superior recent form, and defensive capability should overcome Toledo's historical head-to-head edge. The total will finish under 157.5 as both teams struggle offensively relative to pace.
Predicted Score: Wright State 79, Toledo 68
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