Match Analysis: Providence Friars vs Pennsylvania Quakers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence
Game Overview
The Providence Friars host the Pennsylvania Quakers in a college basketball matchup where Providence enters as a heavy favorite. Both teams carry 1-1 records into this contest, though Providence's recent loss to Virginia Tech in overtime on the road suggests potential vulnerability despite home-court advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Penn averages 98.5 PPG with 49.59% FG and 71.60% FT shooting, while Providence averages 95.0 PPG with 47.10% FG and 80.77% FT shooting. Penn shows superior offensive efficiency across most categories. Both teams are 1-1 on the season with each holding a 1-0 home record and 0-1 away record. Penn was defeated 84-78 on the road by American Eagles; Providence fell 107-101 in overtime on the road to Virginia Tech.
- In their last matchup, Penn defeated Providence 81-75, demonstrating the ability to compete with and beat the Friars. This historical advantage provides context for Penn's underdog status.
- No specific injuries reported in available data.
- The massive point spread (-19.5) and moneyline odds (-2800) suggest sharp money heavily favoring Providence. Public betting shows 59% on Providence with 41% on Penn, indicating possible contrarian positioning. Providence's recent overtime loss to Virginia Tech may have left emotional and physical toll despite the home-court setting.
- Providence, as the heavy favorite, faces trap-game potential against a team that beat them recently. Penn, as significant underdogs in a road environment, may show resilience given their previous head-to-head victory and superior offensive metrics.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Penn +1300 / Providence -2800 | Providence Friars | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Penn +19.5 -115 / Providence -19.5 -105 | Pennsylvania Quakers +19.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 170.5 -115 / Under 170.5 -105 | Under 170.5 | β β β β β 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Providence Friars -24% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 170.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 170.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
While Providence's home-court advantage and sharp money support favor them, the massive -19.5 spread represents overleveraging by the market. Penn's superior offensive efficiency (98.5 vs 95.0 PPG), their recent 81-75 head-to-head victory, and their 0-1 road record already priced into underdog status creates value. The total of 170.5 appears appropriately set given both teams' defensive capabilities and pace.
Predicted Score: Providence 89, Pennsylvania 78