Match Analysis: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Navy Midshipmen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-11
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) face off against the Navy Midshipmen (1-1) in an early-season college basketball matchup, with Penn State heavily favored at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Penn State is undefeated at 2-0 with dominant wins (76-68 vs Fairfield and 87-43 vs New Haven) while Navy is 1-1, having been crushed 97-68 by Yale and narrowly beating Presbyterian 76-55. Penn State averages 81.5 points per game, Navy about 72 points with defensive vulnerabilities.
- No recent direct H2H data available; however, Penn State's higher competition level in Big Ten and superior recent form imply dominance.
- No major injuries reported for either side that would impact starting rotations or key players.
- Game played at Penn State's home arena, Bryce Jordan Center, providing strong home-court advantage to the Nittany Lions. Navy struggles defensively, especially on perimeter shooting, which Penn State can exploit.
- Penn State is motivated to maintain its early perfect start and establish conference dominance. Navy seeks to rebound from a heavy defeat and prove competitiveness but may lack depth and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Penn State -800, Navy +520 | Penn State | β β β β β 88% |
| Spread | Penn State -12.5 (-115), Navy +12.5 (-105) | Penn State -12.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 154.5 (-112), Under 154.5 (-112) | Under 154.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 154.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given heavy favoritism, recent form, home advantage, and Navy's defensive struggles, Penn State is highly likely to win decisively and cover the spread, with game scoring expected below the total line.
Predicted Score: Penn State 81 – Navy 65