Match Analysis: Morgan St Bears vs UMBC Retrievers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Tuesday, November 11, 2025
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Hill Field House, Baltimore, MD
Game Overview
UMBC Retrievers (1-1) travel to Baltimore to face Morgan State Bears (1-1) in an early-season matchup. Both teams are seeking momentum after splitting their opening games. UMBC comes off a 77-71 road loss to Dayton, while Morgan State secured a 101-77 home victory over Crown College. This is a low-seed matchup with limited historical significance, making it a value-hunting opportunity.
Key Factors to Consider
- UMBC averages 72.5 PPG on 43.8% shooting while allowing 65 PPG on 42.3% defense. Key scorer Jah'likai King leads with 18.5 PPG and 6.5 RPG (38.7% FG, 75% FT). DJ Armstrong Jr. contributes 13.5 PPG on efficient 60% shooting. The Retrievers excel from three-point range (40.7%) and at the free throw line (73.9%), but defensive perimeter issues were exposed at Dayton (allowing 10 three-pointers). Morgan State's offensive output (101 PPG vs. Crown College) suggests improved ball movement and scoring depth. UMBC's road performance remains a concern, with the team seeking its first away win.
- No significant head-to-head history provided in available data. This appears to be an early-season matchup without established patterns between these programs.
- No injury information reported for either team. Full roster availability assumed for both sides.
- UMBC is on a 6-of-8 game losing streak historically, suggesting consistency issues. Morgan State showed dominance at home against Crown College, indicating potential home-court advantage. The neutral site factor is minimal given Morgan State's home court. ESPN+ broadcast ensures reasonable visibility.
- Both teams are 1-1 and seeking their first definitive win trajectory. Morgan State has home court advantage and momentum from beating Crown College decisively. UMBC faces pressure to secure a road victory and prove capability away from home. Neither team faces existential pressure at this stage of the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Morgan St Bears +154 | UMBC Retrievers -192 | UMBC Retrievers ML | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Morgan St Bears +3.5 (-105) | UMBC Retrievers -3.5 (-115) | UMBC -3.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
| Over/under | Over 166.5 (-114) | Under 166.5 (-110) | Under 166.5 | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UMBC Retrievers -12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 166.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 166.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UMBC Retrievers upset Morgan State Bears in a moderate-scoring affair. Despite home court disadvantage, UMBC's superior three-point shooting (40.7% vs. implied ~35%), free throw efficiency (73.9%), and depth scoring (King, Armstrong, Valentine all in double figures) should overcome Morgan State's home advantage. Morgan State's defense allowed 101 PPG to a weak opponent, and UMBC's defensive efficiency (65 PPG allowed) is superior. The key X-factor: UMBC's perimeter shooting can exploit Morgan State's apparent defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: UMBC 71, Morgan State 67