Match Analysis: UMass Minutemen vs Northern Illinois Huskies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst, Massachusetts
Game Overview
Northern Illinois Huskies (2-7) visit UMass Minutemen (0-9) in a Mid-American Conference matchup where Huskies are favored as they look to build momentum after a recent blowout loss, while UMass searches for its first win of the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Northern Illinois has struggled this season offensively and defensively but holds a competitive edge with 2 wins vs. UMass's 0; Huskies rely on run game averaging 159 rush yards/game, while UMass has been winless and ranks poorly across offense and defense.
- Recent data indicates Northern Illinois generally outmatches UMass, with no recent wins by UMass and consistent Huskies dominance in scoring and yardage.
- No major injuries reported for either team that would substantially impact performance; Northern Illinois linebacker Quinton Urwiler has been key defensively.
- Game at UMass's home stadium but Huskies' motivation to rebound from a heavy loss and overall superior roster depth likely mitigates home-field advantage.
- Northern Illinois aims to end a 4-loss streak and improve postseason reputation despite slim chances, while UMass is desperate for first season win, possibly leading to high effort but low execution.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies: -460, UMass Minutemen: +360 | Northern Illinois Huskies | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies -10.5: -114, UMass Minutemen +10.5: -106 | Northern Illinois Huskies -10.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 43.5: -105, Under 43.5: -115 | Under 43.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 43.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 43.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Northern Illinois Huskies moneyline win; Huskies cover the spread; game goes under total points
Predicted Score: Northern Illinois 24 – UMass 10